The fate of abortion rights in the United States is once again making headlines, as the Supreme Court prepares to hear a pivotal case that could significantly affect the 2024 elections.
President Joe Biden, during his State of the Union address, took an unexpected jab at the Supreme Court justices, reminding them of their decision to return the abortion issue to elected representatives. Noting that women are not without electoral or political power, he gave an unscripted remark that hinted at the political storm that could be brewing around the abortion issue.
“You’re about to realize just how much you were right about that,” Biden said as Democrats applauded.
The Supreme Court is set to take up its first significant abortion case since its divisive 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. This case revolves around the abortion pill mifepristone, and whether the reimposition of significant restrictions on the pill could affect the political landscape.
In a recent poll by KFF, a nonpartisan health research organization, it was revealed that almost two-thirds of adults hadn’t heard anything about the abortion pill case. This included 60% of reproductive-age women living in states where abortion is currently available. The importance of abortion as a deciding issue for voters has also seen a decline, with only 12% considering it as the most important issue for the 2024 vote, as compared to 24% in 2022.
“It was one of the more important issues deciding close elections in the 2022 midterms, but we haven’t seen it rise to the same level of importance currently for the 2024 election,” said Ashley Kirzinger, KFF’s director of survey methodology.
The justices will consider if the Food and Drug Administration correctly allowed mifepristone to be dispensed through the mail, let nurse practitioners and physician assistants prescribe the drug, and let pregnant patients take the drug up to ten weeks into a pregnancy instead of seven. Another case to be heard next month will determine whether federal law requires doctors in emergency rooms to perform abortions when needed to treat an emergency medical condition, even if doing so might violate a state’s abortion restrictions.
Experts suggest that the court’s decisions on these cases could have a significant impact on the 2024 elections. Mary Ziegler, a legal expert at the University of California, Davis School of Law, opines that President Biden could see the biggest political boost if the court issues “big, splashy, sweeping anti-abortion decisions.”
“Every time there’s an instance of overreach, it is another moment of radicalization,” said Rachel O’Leary Carmona, executive director of Women’s March.
Mary Ziegler also notes that the best outcome for former President Donald Trump’s campaign would be if the Biden administration wins both cases or if the decisions are difficult for the public to understand. This would allow Trump to argue that abortion isn’t going to be a significant issue for the next president.
Regardless of how the cases are decided, the Biden campaign is expected to continue to make reproductive rights a top focus. They argue that the reversal of Roe v. Wade and the resulting abortion restrictions around the country are a result of the judicial appointments Trump brags about.
The records of both presidents on the issue of mifepristone provide a stark contrast. While the Trump administration had successfully petitioned the Supreme Court to restore restrictions on the drug, the Biden administration lifted these restrictions after taking office in 2021.
Abortion rights activists, led by organizations like Women’s March, have been organizing protests from the start of the court hearings over mifepristone. They plan to be outside the Supreme Court to highlight the stakes for women in the upcoming court case and the elections.
