According to a Cluster 17 poll for “Le Point”, a large majority of French people oppose the choice to use 49.3 to pass the pension reform.
By Sébastien Schneegans
TFrench kings out of four want the government to be censored. This is revealed by a Cluster 17 survey for Point. Although the motion tabled by the group Libertés, Indépendants, Outre-mer et Territoires (Liot) and part of the Nupes is unlikely to pass on Monday – a good half of the LR deputies would have to vote for it –, 74% of the French people interviewed say they wish “that the motion of censure be adopted and that the government resign”. Unsurprisingly, the voters of Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are very largely in favor (respectively 91% and 98%). But anger and misunderstanding of the chosen method also seem to be winning over some of Emmanuel Macron’s ranks: 19% of his voters in the first round of the presidential election believe that the Borne government should be censored.
Above all, more than a third of the President of the Republic’s voters (36%) consider the use of Article 49.3 “unacceptable” – including 16% “completely unacceptable”. While the reform was already arousing strong opposition in the opposition, “the use of 49.3 has the consequence that a large part of the French, not considering themselves necessarily opposed to the reform, now express their dissatisfaction”, underlines Stéphane Fournier , director of studies at Cluster 17. Thus, while the voters of the Republicans are rather favorable to the pension reform, the use of 49.3 to pass it is “unacceptable”, according to 71% of the voters of Valérie Pécresse at the last presidential election, and “completely unacceptable”, according to 47% of them.
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Thanks to the particular method of Cluster 17, which segments the electorate into sixteen “clusters” representing all political and ideological affinities, this study highlights another interesting trend: the clusters that are rather favorable to Emmanuel Macron’s policy are increasingly hostile to the choices of his government. 45% of Social Democrats – a cluster essentially comprising historic PS voters now voting for Macron –, for example, consider the use of 49.3 “completely unacceptable”. More than half of progressives and conservatives (58% and 59%) share this view. While these three clusters constitute an essential part of the Head of State’s electorate, the majority of them want the Borne government to resign – 53% of Social Democrats, 71% of Conservatives and even 75% of Progressives.
Supporters of Macron hostile to the choice of 49.3
Moreover, while Emmanuel Macron’s popularity is at its lowest since the Yellow Vests crisis – it collapses to 28%, according to Ifop’s monthly barometer, only five points more than in December 2018 , at the height of the demonstrations – the liberals, who are also rather close ideologically to Macron, disapprove of his method. In the Cluster 17 study, more than a quarter of them (27%) consider the use of 49.3 “completely unacceptable” and almost half (46%) want the government to be censored. The same is true among the Social Republicans, who are 58% to find the use of 49.3 “unacceptable” and 76% to want government censorship. Only the centrists support the choice of Emmanuel Macron and Elisabeth Borne: 77% believe that the use of 49.3 to pass this reform is “acceptable” and 33% “completely acceptable”.
READ ALSOPension reform: after a final 49.3, the five-year term on hold “In sum, the political losses for Emmanuel Macron and his government could be significant in the long term: moderate center-left and center-right clusters having very largely participated in his re-election such as the social democrats, the progressives and the conservatives seem not only more and more opposed to this reform but more and more hostile to the choices of the government”, summarizes Stéphane Fournier. In order to get out of this political slump, the entourage of Emmanuel Macron evokes a speech by the President of the Republic in the coming days.
*Study carried out by Cluster17 for Point from a sample of 1,425 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over. The sample is drawn up according to the quota method, with regard to the criteria of sex, age, socio-professional category, type of municipality and region of residence. Online self-administered questionnaire. Interviews conducted on March 17, 2023.