Yesterday I had the opportunity to speak once again with the Secretary of the Treasury, Rogelio Ramirez de la O.
One of the obligatory topics in the conversation was the matter of the situation that has arisen in the financial markets global markets that have been rocked by the upheavals at regional banks in the United States and by the Credit Suisse case.
The head of national finance pointed out that the problems with banks in the world Mexican banks will not be infected since the level of capitalization that Mexican banks have is higher than that of banking institutions in other places.
On the one hand, due to the country’s own regulatory requirements, but also due to having a more cautious attitude to give credits.
My perception is that the Secretary of the Treasury, although he is very attentive to the global financial environment, He is not worried about a possible contagion for Mexico.
One of the inevitable impacts, however, is the higher cost of public debt.
To the extent that new placements of various public bonds are made at higher rates, it costs more just to renew the debt.
Until now, Ramírez de la O told me, it has been possible to “budgetally accommodate” that increase.
One concern that exists among private sector analysts is that, having calculated the Budget with an estimated growth of 3 percent for GDP this year, which for now is seen to be above consensus expectations, could There is insufficient collection.
Ramírez de la O is convinced that it is early to revise his expectations downwards, since in recent months we have observed an upward adjustment in the forecasts of most experts, which could continue to occur in the coming months.
I also asked the secretary about the decision of the Treasury of the Federation of purge some government accounts in commercial banks.
He dismissed the relevance of the fact and pointed out that it is a process aimed simply at making the Treasury accounts efficient and controlling.
However, the perception I got among bankers is that dissatisfaction with the explanationso I see that uncertainty persists regarding the real effect that this decision may bring with it.
In short, I heard from a Secretary who perceives that although there is a complex global financial environment, he does not really perceive it as threatening.
i wish i really your message reassures financial markets that, it cannot be denied, as the director of a rating agency told me, “they are still nervous.”
In his participation in the opening ceremony (in the Banking Convention), Ramírez de la O emphasized, as he has done for months, to the industrial relocation processwhich has benefited and will foreseeably benefit Mexico more in the future.
He pointed out that this forces us to redesign some public policies, which, for example, allow a further development of industrial parkswhich in some places are already at very high occupancy levels.
He optimism of a public official like Ramírez de la O is inevitable, he must maintain it against all odds. one of his functions as financial authority is pass it on
But, on this occasion, I do not perceive that there is a counterpoint between his vision and that of the bankers.
There is practically general agreement that Mexico has a unique opportunityof those that appear only from time to time in history and that, if we want, today the conditions exist to take advantage of it.
The involuntary ‘uncovering’
President López Obrador added a humorous note to the opening ceremony of the Convention when he made a mistake when mentioning Mauricio Vila, governor of Yucatán, and called him “president”, amidst the laughter of the audience, to jokingly say after repair the mistake: “one more uncover”, which caused even more laughter.
