The unemployment rate started the year stagnant at 8.4%. The result represents stability compared to the previous quarter, which ended in October 2022, when it stood at 8.3%. It is the lowest rate for a quarter ending in January since 2015.
Data are from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous Pnad), released this Friday, and refer to the quarter ended in January
This is the first result to show the performance of the labor market, both formal and informal, under the Lula government
Last year, the average unemployment rate in Brazil dropped to 9.3% after reaching 13.2% in 2021. In the fourth quarter of last year, unemployment stood at 7.9%
What do analysts say?
Economists estimate that the labor market is already showing signs of losing steam since the end of last year, a movement that should intensify throughout this year. The lower traction is motivated by the slowdown in economic activity, which tends to put pressure on the level of unemployment in the country.
The Antecedent Employment Indicator (IAEmp) of FGV IBRE rose 0.8 points, to 74.7 points in February, after having fallen in January in the same proportion.
In the evaluation of Anna Carolina Gouveia, economist at FGV IBRE, the first two months of 2023 show an indicator that walks sideways and remains at a historically low level:
Expectations of an economic slowdown in the year have impacted companies’ hiring momentum, preventing the indicator from regaining momentum in 2023. The reversal to a positive and sustainable trajectory in the coming months will depend on the improvement of the macroeconomic framework and the evolution positive effects of the sectoral activities”, he pointed out, in a comment
