Farewell to the nuclear taboo in Asia: South Korea opens the door to its own atomic bomb

The Ukrainian War has uncovered many ghosts that seemed buried in the past. Perhaps the most significant is return to the nuclear arms race. The veiled Russian threats to use it in case of need have alerted many countries that see the atomic arsenal as a deterrent. The nuclear taboo is no longer taboo and on the Asian continent —a hot spot in this regard— South Korea, a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, is resuming an old project that it had to abandon decades ago due to international pressure.

“North Korea has almost managed to miniaturize and lighten tactical nuclear weapons and got at least dozens of warheads. We have reached a point where it is difficult to convince people with logic that we should refrain from developing nuclear weapons and adhere to the cause of denuclearization”, recently stated to the Reuters agency Oh Se-hoon, Mayor of Seoul. In his remarks, he pointed directly to the Ukrainian experience: “Russia freely violates Ukraine’s airspace, flies bombers and fires missiles…but Ukraine rarely attacks Russian territory due to psychological inferiority to a nuclear state.”

The words of the mayor of the capital of South Korea are added to those said in January by the president of the country, Yoon Suk-Yeol. “It is possible that the problem will get worse and our country introduce tactical nuclear weapons or we build them ourselves. If that is the case, we can have our own nuclear weapons quite quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities,” said the president, who last October called on the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in his country to counter the threat of their North Korean neighbors.

To the then request of the South Korean president should be added, to be more precise, the term “again”. The United States kept nuclear weapons in South Korea until 1991. The shipment was made under the radar in 1958, in breach of the 1953 Korean armistice, according to an article published in the New York Times titled: “The dirty secret of US nuclear weapons in Korea“.

Is there a real chance of South Korea getting its own atomic arsenal? “South Korea unlikely to develop its own nuclear weapons due to strong opposition from the United States and the many negative consequences that this would have, such as possible sanctions and strong condemnation from the international community,” Gabriela Bernal, a Seoul-based analyst specializing in North Korea, told El Confidencial. “It could lead to Japan develops its own nuclear weapons programa more aggressive Chinese military posture and, probably, a complete break in diplomacy between the two Koreas,” explains Bernal.

The problem is that the threat from North Korea feels more and more certain in its neighbors to the south. Pyongyang’s constant trials of intercontinental ballistic missile launches that could carry nuclear warheads have generated greater support in South Korean society for the development of its own nuclear weapons. In a March 1 survey by Data Research, more than 70% of South Koreans are in favor of the development of nuclear weapons, compared to 27% who are opposed. In addition, 59% believe that North Korea would use nuclear weapons if war broke out between the two countries.

“North Korea is seen as a potential danger. Especially given the many military advances the country has made in recent years. Many in the South are concerned that the United States will not be able to fully protect them, especially since North Korea’s missiles North can impact the American continental territory.In such a scenario, Washington is unlikely to prioritize South Korea’s security over its ownBernal says.

This threat from Pyongyang to be able to attack American cities is part of the pro-nuclear rhetoric under the idea that both nations are defending themselves at the same time. “Pyongyang’s policies and actions are not just a Korean concern… North Korea is one of the three potential adversaries of the US that has the capacity to attack our continent with intercontinental nuclear weapons,” he says in an article Mark A Greenformer US ambassador and president and director of the Wilson Center in Washington, a think tank international policy analysis.

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The American diplomat recalls that “in 1991, the United States withdrew all its nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula” In 1992, the two Koreas signed a joint declaration in which they promised that neither would test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy or use nuclear weapons. In the following years, North Korea has repeatedly violated the spirit, if not the details, of its obligations.. It has carried out six nuclear tests, amassed up to 60 nuclear warheads, and gathered enough fissile material to build at least six additional bombs each year.”

In addition to the two Koreas and the United States, China is the fourth country directly involved in this conflict. Beijing is a priority partner of Pyongyang, following a historic alliance that former Chairman Mao Zedong described as “as close as teeth and lips”. In recent years, that today close relationship that has been in the past, despite the grand messages of friendship from its leaders, full of ups and downs and mistrust on both sides, has improved and has been consolidated under the umbrella of the common enemy that is the United States. “Our alliance is sealed in blood,” North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently said.

Beijing watches with concern what it describes as an attempt to create an “Asian NATO”. Recent visits by Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to South Korea and Japan have raised eyebrows in China and North Korea. “We are seriously concerned about the course of the US and South Korean military exercises,” said Wang Wenbin, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, before the joint exercises that both countries began to carry out on Monday, March 13.

It does not seem easy for China to accept that South Korea, a very neighboring country and in the close orbit of Washington, initiates its own nuclear weapons program. “I don’t think there is an Asian NATO like the one in Europe, but it is clear that the US, under the Biden Administration, has already formed a strong alliance bloc against China with South Korea and Japan. Trilateral cooperation between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo continues to grow, and the US goal is clearly to use as many of its allies in the region as possible to counter the rise of China,” Bernal said.

In any case, South Korea has already made an attempt to develop its own nuclear arsenal. It was under the command of the dictator Park Chung-heeIn the 1970s, when there was a covert atomic program called Project 890 which ended up being discarded due to pressure from the United States itself, which at the time considered it to be a destabilizing element in the area. Washington promised, in return, to guarantee the security of a country in which there are still 28,500 US soldiers deployed.

Today the scenario is different and according to the vision of South Korean analysts such as Cheong Seong-chang, “if South Korea has nuclear weapons, the United States will actually be safer“. The South Korean president, Yoon Suk Yeol, maintains that nuclear missiles in his country will achieve a deterrent effect. “We must crush the North’s desire to provoke,” he says.

The Ukrainian War has uncovered many ghosts that seemed buried in the past. Perhaps the most significant is return to the nuclear arms race. The veiled Russian threats to use it in case of need have alerted many countries that see the atomic arsenal as a deterrent. The nuclear taboo is no longer taboo and on the Asian continent —a hot spot in this regard— South Korea, a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, is resuming an old project that it had to abandon decades ago due to international pressure.