The upward movement that was born at the lows set in October by the Stoxx 600 Banks SX7R has found a ceiling, I understand temporarily, at the highs established by the sector two weeks ago. After a 50% rise in the SX7R sector index no one should be surprised that banks need to take a break to consolidate this riseafter which I believe that the increases will continue to be imposed, hence it is necessary to remain calm, especially if your investment orientation is medium / long term.
I’m talking about a rise that has led to the SX7R banking sector index of the 317 at 473 points and, for the moment, the fall that we have seen during the last sessions has managed to deepen below the 23.60% Fibonacci correction level of all this rise, after losing the zone of the 436 pointswhich coincided with the key support of the 4,170 points of the Euro Stoxx 50.
The loss of these supports suggests that the ‘scare’ or deeper correction has begun, which could serve to retrace up to 38.20 or 50% of that described rise, which is what I have been insisting for weeks that could take shape in any moment. This invited pick apples or to think that the last duro was better for others to win, which were some in multiple ways in which I pointed out the advisability of taking advantage of the very strong rise to collect partial benefits as the European indices approached or reached last year’s highs .
This scare I see it as a magnificent opportunity to buy back European banks and that is why I am going to analyze the levels where I would place the purchase prices in the main Spanish banks. In this sense, Spanish banks, unlike the rest of the IBEX 35, is not experiencing a recovery, but is in a clear reconstruction process to which there is still a lot of value to be returned. This reconstruction process It could lead Spanish banks to reconquer their all-time highs, which are still some way off in some cases and which is the objective to assess for the medium term in purchases that can be made taking advantage of the current correction.
The price curve of the BBVA reached the area of the €7.55falling just over 15% off their all-time highs in the 8.75 eurowhich is the objective that I continue to manage for the bank in the coming months, by the time the current consolidation ends.
We can talk about a simple consolidation as long as you don’t lose the 6.65 euroswhich is the 23.60% Fibonacci adjustment level of all the last big bullish movement that was born in the 3.87 euros and that it has found a ceiling, I understand that temporarily, at the indicated 7.55 euros. If you lose the 6.65 euros is when we could witness a correction towards the 6.15 euroswhich is what I would consider as a true gift to buy back BBVA shares in search of a resumption of increases from there towards the 8.75 euro. Given the strength shown by BBVA in recent months, I very much doubt that an eventual correction will go below the €6-6.15.
The actions of the Santander last week reached the resistance zone of the 3.80-4 eurowhich is the one that I pointed out on numerous occasions was the maximum ascent objective that I had for the very strong ascent of the last few weeks, which has been a true beast due to its verticality.
Therefore, it does not surprise me at all that in the short term Santander has chosen to consolidate part of the last increase that was born in the 2.25 euro and that it hit the ceiling, I understand that temporarily, in the 3.88 euros. This consolidation has already deepened below the first theoretical support of the 3.50 eurowhich was the Fibonacci adjustment of 23.605, hence I consider that Santander could end up looking for support in a corrective context in the stock markets at the 3.07-3.26 euros. In that range is where they can place their purchase orders in search of another upward momentum from there towards targets that I manage for the coming months in the 5.30 euro, which is the horizontal resistance that stopped Santander’s rises in 2007, in 2010, in 2014 and also in 2018, which is said soon. Until that historical resistance, Santander has an increase margin of more than 50%.
For an old resistance to become a support is something that is very common in technical analysis and that is why no one should be surprised that the actions of CaixaBank experience a drop known as throw back or turn back to test the old resistance, now support, of the 3.60 eurowhose break weeks ago confirmed a clear pattern of bullish continuity.
In the area of the 3.60 euro I am already in favor of buying CaixaBank shares in search of the bank resuming its impeccable medium/long-term upward trend from there. In the worst case, I believe that you can go back to seek support from the €3.10-3.25.
Bankinter was the first of the large Spanish banks that managed months ago to exceed its old historical highs that it had reached in 2018 in the area of the €5.50-5.65, showing a strength that is completely enviable by the rest. In any case, technically there are still certain hurdles that the listing of bankinter to be able to talk about the fact that it has entered absolute free rise. Specifically the resistive environment of the 7 euroswhich is the tangency with the growing long-term resistance that arises from joining the highs of 2008 and 2018. In that zone of 7 euros, I am not surprised that there is a consolidation towards the €5.65-5.50which would see it as a buying opportunity in search of a next impulse that ends up overcoming that resistance of the 7 euros.
The actions of the Sabadell They have ample potential in the medium/long term, but in the short term it is normal that they need to take a break before further bullish adventures, maximum after having reached the intermediate resistance zone that I already indicated weeks ago in the €1.35-1.40 (highs at 1,335). From there it is forming a correction, which is what with all the patience in the world I was waiting to recommend buying the bank. The optimal buying area is between 1.04 and €0.9480. For those levels there are bullish guidelines and they are the correction point of 38.20 and 50% of all the last great rise that was born last July from the €0.5625.
When buying Sabadell, look for more ambitious objectives such as the €1.60-1.85. in the range of €1.60-1.85 are the maximums of the year 2014, 2015 and 2018.
The objective to be sought in the coming months in Unicaja is located around the 1.50 euro, which are the maximums that it reached in 2018, a few months after beginning its stock market journey. In short he has already reached the zone of the 1.05 euro, which is what he expected to buy the bank. Between that level and the psychological support of 1 euroI understand that Unicaja is a purchase.