Aukus moment: the great strategic deterrence of the US, UK and Australia against China

Don’t say deterrence, say Aukus. The great geostrategic pact between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia will materialize this Monday with a summit in which the first details will be given about this controversial alliance – designed in 2021 before the war at a high diplomatic cost. The expectations are high. Australia will announce the purchase of at least three US nuclear submarines and a project to build their own based on a next-generation British design. With this, Washington advances in one of its backbones in its military containment plan to curb the growing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific.

For days now, Anglo-Saxon agencies and media have been filled with leaks about the announcements that are expected this Monday in San Diego, where the president Joe Biden will receive the british Rishi Sunak and to the Australian Anthony Albanese. The information suggests that, initially, Canberra will take over three Virginia-class American submarines nuclear-capable to immediately reinforce its weakened fleet of six Collins (which will be taken out of service by 2039). In addition, the option to acquire two additional units and its divers will receive training in the capabilities, operation and maintenance of this equipment.

This first phase would be the patch for a long-term plan that includes the construction of the first Australian submarines on a UK model SSN(R) (Submersible Ship Nuclear Replacement), powered by BAE Systems and Rolls Royce. These ships, future successors to the Astute class, are still in the design phase and they are not expected to enter service until 2040 at the earliest. The Australian variant would probably carry a combat system from the American one. Lockheed-Martin, compatible with the Collins, Virginia and the rest of the North American fleet. To undertake this project, the Australian Navy must update its shipyards and ports with the technology and security necessary to house one of the most strategic weapons on the planet. In addition, the alliance has a second major pillar for cooperation on hypersonic weapons, electronic warfare, and underwater capabilities (although less progress has been made on this to date).

Unlike conventional ones, submarines powered by nuclear reactors can navigate faster and longer – up to four months without surfacing – and have a guaranteed energy supply for their 25-year useful life. They are hardly detectable and can be armed with all kinds of strategic weapons, including cruise missiles with atomic warheads. Their high cost means that barely half a dozen countries can invest in them. The United States is immersed in the production of 12 new Columbia-class nuclear submarines at a price of 128,000 million dollars.

The Aukus agreement (an acronym for Australia, United Kingdom and US) was secretly negotiated and announced by the three countries in September 2021. It was never explicitly stated, but its goal is clear. Upgrade Australia’s military potential to nuclear status and thus have an additional deterrent to counter China’s military and strategic expansion. At the time, the announcement sparked a minor diplomatic cataclysm. France, which lost a major contract for 90,000 million euros with Australia for the sale of at least a dozen conventional submarines as replacements for the Collins, accused his allies of giving him “a stab in the back” and summoned his ambassadors in Washington and Canberra for consultations.

The pact also ignored the European partners, who were neither informed nor consulted. In fact, the announcement by the Anglo-Saxons came the same week that the High Diplomatic Representative of the EU, Josep Borrell, presented the common strategy of the 27 for the Indo-Pacific. Japan and South Korea, staunch allies of Washington, also felt displaced. The maneuver once again showed the worst face of US unilateralism and was one more indicator of NATO’s political and military weakness. Meanwhile, the alliance was welcomed by China as a new step in “the provocations of the West” in the region. However, all these tensions were diluted after a few months with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Or at least postponed. Until today.

The Pacific, less peaceful

The war suddenly changed the geopolitical script of the 21st century. But the great plot remains and is far from Europe. The contradictions between China and the United States are accelerating. The White House has just requested a defense budget for fiscal year 2024 that is close to a trillion dollars (+3.3 year-on-year), which includes 6,000 million for Ukraine, NATO and other European allies; and another 9.100 million for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative promoted by the Pentagon. There is also a request for nearly $40 billion to modernize the country’s nuclear capabilities. Many US military and experts believe that China could invade Taiwan – a country it considers a rogue province – in the next few years, a move that would destabilize the entire planet.

China’s ‘Ukrainian knot’: it doesn’t want to arm Russia, but it doesn’t want to deal with the US either

Xavier Brandoli. Southeast Asian

For its part, Beijing has just announced a budget of some 225,000 million dollars (+7.2% year-on-year) —four times less than its rival—, although some analysts believe that they are figures made up to the downsidewith numerous secondary items or directly secret. “External attempts to pressure and contain China are escalating,” said the outgoing prime minister, li keqiangin his government report. “The Armed Forces must intensify their military training and their preparation for all scenarios,” he added in the report. The Red Army has been particularly active in the past year, with constant displays of military deployment in Taiwanese air and sea territory, and even ballistic missile tests.

In Europe, Russian aggression has galvanized the transatlantic allies and, in public, they have put their differences behind them. The French Emmanuel Macron, the most aggrieved by the Aukus, considered the matter resolved after the change of Australian government and the payment of compensation to the French companies affected by the submarine flip. Nor do the Europeans have much margin. The war has exposed the enormous military deficiencies of practically all the continental armies, which have launched their own defense modernization programs. It has become clear that without US military aid, Ukraine would have fallen.

Opinion

China’s advantage in the new cold war, explained by a science fiction author

Angel Villarino

Ironically, it is in the countries involved that the revival of the pact has been received with least enthusiasm. In the United States, there are fears in both Congress and the Navy that efforts to arm their ocean partner will undermine their own build-up plans by adding strain to already congested Virginia-class production lines. Also in the United Kingdom they warn that to fulfill this commitment new investments will be required in the saturated British shipyards.

In Australia, several military analysts warn of the difficulties — and costs — of operating and maintaining two different types of nuclear submarines, with what that entails in logistical terms. In addition, experts have criticized that, according to initial reports, Australian submarines will use highly enriched uranium, one of the most dangerous materials on the planet, and ask that other options be considered.

“If this is the optimal path to have nuclear submarines, it’s a complete nut. Why should we, after having accomplished the hardest thing to have the Virginia-classes, embark on another nuclear submarine program with all the devilish difficulties that entails?” he summed up. Ben Packhamdefense correspondent for The Australianone of the most influential newspapers in the country.

Don’t say deterrence, say Aukus. The great geostrategic pact between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia will materialize this Monday with a summit in which the first details will be given about this controversial alliance – designed in 2021 before the war at a high diplomatic cost. The expectations are high. Australia will announce the purchase of at least three US nuclear submarines and a project to build their own based on a next-generation British design. With this, Washington advances in one of its backbones in its military containment plan to curb the growing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific.