According to the polls, Morena has the victory of next year’s presidential election in her bag, with whomever she leads as a candidate.
The barometer of the State of Mexico indicates that instead of improving the climate for the opposition, winds are coming against it. The role of Movimiento Ciudadano heralds shipwreck for candidate Del Moral.
If Morena wins Edomex with Delfina Gómez, she would win the presidency even with Félix Salgado Macedonio.
Everything can change, without a doubt, because in politics – we have seen it – nothing is final until it is consummated, and nothing is forever.
With the numbers that the polls show, one wonders why Morena insists on taking over the electoral bodies, removing from there the trained citizens who bring an impartial election to a successful conclusion, or completely destroying the INE.
Morena requires electoral fraud, and with current legislation and autonomous councilors the task is difficult.
The immediate, and obvious, is that Morena seeks to have a qualified majority in Congress to modify the Constitution without negotiating with anyone.
They need the Legislative Branch as an appendix to the president in order to carry out the pending reforms that López Obrador listed on Monday, among which the elimination of autonomous bodies stands out.
It is said with all its letters. It is not a matter of interpretations.
And among the autonomous organizations are, among others, the Bank of Mexico, the Electoral Institute, and those that carry out censuses and statistics on population, poverty, income and household expenses, or guarantee economic competition without monopolistic practices.
There are also universities, study and research centers, the Human Rights Commission, etc.
He left it as a task for the next president, whose profile he outlined in the morning conference on Monday. She must eliminate the organisms that the Constitution consecrates as autonomous.
It is the immediate reason why Morena needs to capture the INE and sweep the next federal election: to have the power to change the Constitution.
But there are other reasons that demand a landslide victory for the party in government, through electoral fraud.
Morena must appropriate the electoral bodies and manipulate the results to win all the elections and give the impression that there is no alternative to the president (said without euphemisms: there is no alternative to the true head of state, who will dispatch in Palenque).
Professors Ivan Krastev, from the Vienna Institute of Human Sciences, and Stephen Holmes, from Harvard, explain in their book The light that goes out (Debate) the success of autocratic populists in Eastern Europe, and dedicate a chapter to the Russian case.
“Regular (rigged) elections helped cement and inculcate, on a regular basis, the idea that there was no alternative to Putin’s power… The 2011 vote confirmed the thesis that Putin’s popularity reflected ‘public inertia’ as well as a ‘lack of alternatives’”.
They get to the point: “The fraudulent elections in Russia were essential not only to discipline the local components of United Russia (the Morena from there), and to build a political space in which Putin and his ruling circle could appear as the only plausible alternative ”.
Rigged elections, Professors Krastev and Holmes add, also allow for the evaluation of competent and reliable regional leaders.
“Through rigged elections, the regime gathered information about which representatives and which party members in the lower ranks were fulfilling their assigned role… The ability to inflate ballot boxes or falsify counts could be tested on the ground” .
The example of Putin’s Russia is similar to the Mexican one.
There are PRI members –many of them are in Morena– who do not forgive former President Salinas for stopping his party’s fraud machinery and recognizing the victory of the PAN in the governorship of Baja California.
From there they continued Chihuahua, Guanajuato… until the alternation of 2000 that Vicente Fox conquered.
You must never lose, because the myth of the invincible falls.
It is what is built – worth the pun – with the destruction of the INE.