This Sunday, March 12, a 95th Oscar awards ceremony will be held which, unlike last year and despite what some of its categories may suggest, it has a few open fronts in which victory is little less than unpredictable. But don’t worry, if you want to strike down your friends in the usual batons, I’m here to help you out.
I leave you below my predictions of what will happen in the last round of the 2022-2023 awards season both in the main categories and in those unfairly considered as secondary. That said, I am not responsible for potential economic losses if you come up betting, for the record.
Main categories
Best film
Nominated: All Quiet on the Front, Avatar: The Sense of Water, Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything at Once Everywhere, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, The Triangle of Sadness, They Speak.
My winner: Everything at once everywhere.
the bombing indie 2022 has swept awards season so far, and its wins at the Screenwriters, Producers, and Actors Guild Awards secure the Best Picture Oscar.
best direction
nominees: Martin McDonagh for ‘The Banshees in Inisherin’, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for ‘Everything at Once Everywhere’, Steven Spielberg for ‘The Fabelmans’, Todd Field for ‘Tár’, Ruben Ostlund for ‘The Triangle of the sadness’.
My winners: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for ‘Everything at once everywhere’.
In all of history, only eight Directors Guild Award winners have failed to hoist the Oscar, and this time around it doesn’t seem like the Daniels are another of the few exceptions that prove the rule. There is also no competition in this category.
Best actress
Nominated: Cate Blanchett for ‘Tár’, Ana de Armas for ‘Blonde’, Andrea Riseborough for ‘To Leslie’, Michelle Williams for ‘Los Fabelmans’, Michelle Yeoh for ‘Everything at once everywhere’.
My winner: Michelle Yeoh for ‘Everything at Once Everywhere’.
The first category in which there is some dispute is that of best actress. The mere name of Cate Blanchett already makes you think of an Oscar, but the actors’ union opted for Michelle Yeoh, so Blanchett’s BAFTA doesn’t seem like enough of an excuse to triumph on Sunday. Three out of three for ‘Everything at once everywhere’.
best Actor
nominees: Austin Butler for ‘Elvis’, Colin Farrell for ‘The Banshees in Inisherin’, Brendan Fraser for ‘The Whale’, Paul Mescal for ‘Aftersun’, Bill Nighy for ‘Living’.
My winner: Austin Butler for ‘Elvis’.
We continue with the interpretative battles with another duel that is very difficult to predict. Brendan Fraser took the cat to water at the actors union awards, but Austin Butler’s Golden Globe and, especially, his victory at the BAFTAs over British and Irish performers leaves us with a technical tie on the table. Let’s go with Butler, but with a VERY small mouth, since the last time an actor won in this category for a role in a film not nominated for best picture was in 2009.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominated: Angela Bassett for ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’, Hong Chau for ‘The Whale’, Kerry Condon for ‘The Banshees in Inisherin’, Jamie Lee Curtis for ‘Everything at Once Everywhere’, Stephanie Hsu for ‘Everything everywhere at the same time.
My winner: Jamie Lee Curtis for ‘Everything at Once Everywhere’.
Here we have a three-way duel between Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon and Jamie Lee Curtis. Bassett took the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice, Condon the BAFTA—although she was playing at home—and Curtis the Screen Actors Guild Award. At the moment, everything seems to indicate that the latter is a little closer to winning the statuette.
Best Supporting Actor
nominees: Brendan Gleeson for ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’, Brian Tyree Henry for ‘Causeway’, Judd Hirsch for ‘The Fabelmans’, Barry Keoghan for ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’, Ke Huy Quan for ‘All at Once in All parts’.
My winner: Ke Huy Quan for ‘Everything at once everywhere’.
There is no doubt. Ke Huy Quan has been sweeping the awards season in this category and will do it again at the Oscars. No more.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominated: Souls in pain in Inisherin, All at once everywhere, The Fabelmans, Tár, The triangle of sadness.
My winner: Everything at once everywhere.
Does ‘Inisherin’s Banshees’ deserve the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay? Absolutely. Is ‘All at Once Everywhere’ going to win after its win at the Writers Guild Awards? Also, although by very little.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominated: All Quiet Front, Daggers in the Back: The Mystery of the Glass Onion, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, They Speak.
My winner: They speak.
“All Quiet Front” has made a lot of noise both in the nominations and in the awards season, and it has come out that there are many academics in love with it, but the victory of “Ellas hablando” in the awards the screenwriters union position it a little better to take the cat to the water in the photo finish.
best international film
Nominated: All Quiet on the Front, Argentina 1985, Close, Eo, The Quiet Girl.
My winner: No news at the front.
‘All Quiet Front’ has picked up nine nominations for a reason, and it’s not going to go empty-handed in the best international film category. Crystal clear.
best documentary film
Nominated: All that Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny.
My winner: Navalny.
The international scene marked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine makes this documentary about the incumbent Russian opponent the best positioned in its category. In addition, it has the approval of the producers’ union and the BAFTAs.
best animated film
Nominated: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the shell with shoes on, Puss in Boots: Last Wish, The Sea Monster, Red.
My winner: Pinocchio by Guillermo del Toro.
The wonderful ‘Pinocchio by Guillermo del Toro’ has won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the Critics Choice, the producer union award and is going to win the Oscar.
Other categories
best mount
Nominated: Souls in banshee in Inisherin, Elvis, All at once everywhere, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick.
My winner: Everything at once everywhere.
best photography
Nominated: All Quiet on the Front, Bardo: False Chronicle of a Few Truths, Elvis, The Empire of Light, Tár.
My winner: No news at the front.
Best Production Design
Nominated: All Quiet on the Front, Avatar: The Sense of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans.
My winner: Babylon.
best wardrobe
Nominated: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything at Once Everywhere, Mrs. Harris’s Trip to Paris.
My winner: Elvis.
Best makeup and hairstyling
Nominated: All Quiet Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale.
My winner: Elvis.
Best music
Nominated: All Quiet on the Front, Babylon, Banshees in Inisherin, All at Once Everywhere, The Fabelmans.
My winner: Babylon.
better sound
Nominated: All Quiet on the Front, Avatar: The Sense of Water
The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick.
My winner: Top Gun: Maverick.
best original song
Nominated: ‘Applause’ from ‘Tell It Like a Woman’, ‘Hold my hand’ from ‘Top Gun: Maverick’, ‘Lift me up’ from ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’, ‘Naatu Naatu’ from ‘RRR’, ‘ This is a Life’ from ‘Everything at once everywhere’.
My winner: ‘Naatu Naatu’, from ‘RRR’.
better visual effects
Nominated: All Quiet on the Front, Avatar: The Sense of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick.
My winner: Avatar: The sense of water.
Best fiction short film (real action)
nominees: An Irish Goodbye, Ivalu, Le Pupille, Night Ride, The Red Suitcase.
My winner: An Irish Goodbye.
Best Fiction Short Film (Animated)
nominees: The Boy the Mole The Fox ad the Horse, The Flying Sailor, Ice Merchants, My Year of Dicks, An Ostrich told me the world is fake and I think i believe it.
My winner: The Boy the Mole The Fox ad the Horse.
Best documentary short
nominees: The Elephant WhisperersHaulout, How do you measure a year?, The Martha Mitchell Effect, Stranger at the Gat
My winner: The Elephant Whisperers.
