China reveals its cards: the speech that confirms that they have Russia for a while

qin gang has launched his tenure as China’s foreign minister with a phrase that borders on a threat. “If the US does not step on the brake, no guardrail will be able to prevent the derailment (of relations), and it is inevitable that we will fall into conflict and confrontationThe former diplomat has taken a more combative tone in his first appearance in office and after the spy balloon crisis with Washington. In an expected twist, praised the relationship with Russia and affirmed that the ties between the two countries could be increasingly important in the current geopolitical context. “The more turbulent the world becomes, the more China-Russia relations must progress.”

Weeks ago the United States warned that the Asian giant could be sending weapons to the Kremlin for the war in Ukraine, another point that has become a source of tension with Washington. Beijing has denied the accusations and in his speech to the annual legislative session of the National People’s Congress, Qin Gang claimed that ties with Moscow are not addressed to any third country and criticized the “Cold War mentality” of countries that see that relationship as a threat.

However, the Chinese government has positioned itself more in favor of Russia than Ukraine in this war and, while Xi Jinping has spoken at least four times with Vladimir PutinHe still has to meet with the president Volodimir Zelensky. The Chinese Foreign Minister’s speech is a continuation of the Chinese strategy regarding the invasion, but it gives more clues about the role of Beijing on the geopolitical tableau and with a conflict for now irreparable with Washington.

“It is clear that China and Russia are interested in being allies to be a counterweight to the geopolitical pressure they feel from the United States and its allies. Let’s imagine that there is a change of government in Russia and that it is more akin to the Western bloc. The China’s loneliness on the great world geopolitical chessboard would be enormous and would have greater pressure from the international community,” explains mario estebanprincipal investigator at the Elcano Royal Institute and tenured professor at the Center for East Asian Studies at the Autonomous University of Madrid, to El Confidencial.

The worst forecasts suggest that this relationship has secured with arms shipments to Ukraine, although there is no official confirmation about it. It is all speculation and although Esteban does not deny that it could be possible, he maintains that the cost would be tremendously high for Beijing if he had really taken that path. “China would be under the magnifying glass of sanctions and that would have a very large economic cost. They would not take it lightly,” continues the researcher. On the other hand, that military alliance would be the beginning of a bipolarization of the international order, a new Cold War with two sides and two military powers. “For an economy like China, which benefits economically from globalization, that would be bad news.”

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Despite the fact that Beijing has increased its cooperation with the Kremlin since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, there are also limits. Ines Arc, a researcher at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB) specializing in East Asia and Chinese politics, told this newspaper that China has not hesitated to declare that it has concerns about the war and that it opposes the use of nuclear weapons. In addition, certain Chinese economic players have frozen or modified their presence in Russia to avoid possible secondary sanctions. “In an increasingly adverse geostrategic environment, in which it is difficult for Washington and Brussels to change their position vis-à-vis China as a strategic rival, Beijing has very little to gain by condemning Russia and confronting its neighbor,” Arco argues.

The relationship between Beijing and Moscow will continue, but it will be China who decides on what terms and according to its interests, since the Kremlin’s growing dependence on the Xi government is making it the junior partner in the relationship. “Russia needs China more than China needs Russia”said the analyst.

Taiwan, the biggest point of conflict with the US

Minister Qin Gang took advantage of the framework of the Ukraine war to question Washington’s response and involvement, only to condemn what China considers interference in its conflict with Taiwan. “Why does the United States talk about respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity on the Ukraine issue, but does not respect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity on the Taiwan issue? Why is the US asking China not to provide weapons to Russia while still selling weapons to Taiwan?” Qin Gang said.

In the last year, the United States has taken certain measures that Beijing has interpreted as a provocation. The visit of the speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosiin August, Joe Biden’s statements that he would support the island in the event of an invasion and the sale of arms packages to the island. The New York Times also informed of a possible meeting between the current president of the House of Representatives, kevin mccarthyand the president of Taiwan, ing-wen.

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Inés Arco affirmed that, for China, the issue of the island is a non-negotiable red line, so any significant change in this triangular relationship, such as a declaration of independence by Taiwan, is the most sensitive point that could cause a greater confrontation between both powers. But again, “if China has learned anything from Ukraine, it is that continued Western military support, economic sanctions and the example of Ukrainian civil resistance show the difficulty of reunification through the use of force.”

Before the statements by the new foreign minister of the Asian giant, Xi Jinping made reference to a US containment strategy against China. “Western countries led by the United States have implemented the containment, encirclement and general repression of Chinawhich has brought unprecedented severe challenges to the development of our country,” he said. The two speeches confirm the worsening of relations and shatter hopes of improvement in the short term.

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Beyond the war in Ukraine, the conflict in Taiwan and the crisis of the spy balloons, the two governments have an interest in showing a hard position with respect to the other. In the Asian giant, nationalist sentiment pushes Beijing to play an important role in international politics. For this reason, the government can’t afford to be weak against a country like the United States. “However, there is a certain inconsistency: we see how both countries increase tensions in the discourse, but trade relations between them last year have reached historic highs,” concludes Inés Arco.

For his part, Mario Esteban clarified that, unlike previous crises, in the United States there is currently a greater perception of threat from China. On the other side, Beijing knows that it cannot accommodate Washington’s interests. Everything revolves around power or the feeling of having it. “Statements like those of Qin Gang have a reading in domestic terms. They want to represent the government in a position of strength and as the authority in the face of Chinese public opinion. And, of course, hold the United States responsible for any conflict situation“says the researcher.

qin gang has launched his tenure as China’s foreign minister with a phrase that borders on a threat. “If the US does not step on the brake, no guardrail will be able to prevent the derailment (of relations), and it is inevitable that we will fall into conflict and confrontationThe former diplomat has taken a more combative tone in his first appearance in office and after the spy balloon crisis with Washington. In an expected twist, praised the relationship with Russia and affirmed that the ties between the two countries could be increasingly important in the current geopolitical context. “The more turbulent the world becomes, the more China-Russia relations must progress.”