The ghost of the management of María Eugenia Vidal continues to show its effects in the province of Buenos Aires. Despite the fact that the vast majority of Buenos Aires residents are pessimistic about the increase in their income, the Frente de Todos comfortably leads the electoral preferences (33.6%), as long as the Cambiemite alliance (19.4%) and the ultra-right (16.6%) maintain a prudent distance from each other. The data comes from a survey by the consulting company Analogíaswhich after crossing responses on ideologies and political preferences warns that the ruling party must act with “firmness and authority in resolving specific issues” if it intends to capture the vote of the most depoliticized contingents, key in the dispute, which today lean mostly towards right-wing options.
The support base of the Frente de Todos in the most populous province of Argentina is around 45 points, 3 more than it had at the time of the 2021 PASO, specifies the consultancy that last week surveyed 2,467 people from the seven electoral sections. That brief comeback follows a drop from almost 52 points in November 2020 to 42 in October 2021, which the study explains by the real wage deterioration during the economic recovery process as a product of parities lower than inflation, despite the early warning of Vice President Cristina Fernández about the need to distribute that growth.
That deterioration continued in 2022, with only a slight improvement in annualized salary compared to 2021, which would explain the improvement in the base of support. The other factor, suggests Analogías, is the change in attitude of the Frente de Todos, where all its referents have already recognized the need to resolve the salary depression as a priority.
The impact of the 2021 electoral defeat weakened the government, although there was not a symmetric expansion in the opposition, but rather “a withdrawal of the moderate sectors towards expectant and observational positions”, at least in what the consultant classifies as “moderate officialism”. , which fluctuates between 15 and 20 points in the province, an electorate that generally converges towards Peronism.
The study defines how “a major mistake” of Peronism the decision to address these “soft segments” acting with “equal or greater moderation”, aggravated by the exposure of the internal debate due to the lack of consensus. “It can have unsuspected consequences,” she warns, noting that to avoid them “the Frente de Todos must be in tune with those sectors, which demand more firmness and authority in resolving specific issues, to rebuild the majority”. As of today, among those who consider themselves “centrists”, 50% respond that they will go towards some right-wing option and only 22% towards the Frente de Todos.
Among the almost 45 points of those who cannot be ideologically framed, a third state that they support the Frente de Todos, 28% to right-wing options and 35% remain undecided. “It is in these contingents with moderate opinions, disinterest in the stylistic issues of the discourse and demand for pragmatism and authority where the constitution of majorities for the electoral year is disputed., which presents an open, mobile and expectant picture”, highlights the study. The change in attitude of President Alberto Fernández towards the Judiciary, with his decision to promote the impeachment of the Supreme Court, and the centrality of Sergio Massa in coordinating economic policy “may be a principle of reconstitution of political power, although they still do not provide concrete and measurable results”, he also observes.
Income, expectation and reality
The economic expectations of the people of Buenos Aires, which reached minimum levels in 2022, returned to values equivalent to those of 2021. A 44% of those surveyed believe that economic activity this year will be the same or greater than the previous one; 32% think it will be less and 23% do not risk a response.
In terms of income, pessimism reigns: 44.2% think that their purchasing power is going to deteriorate this year20.2% that it will not change and only 18.4% hope that it will increase.
At a much higher level of satisfaction is the view of the holiday season in the province: for 64.3% it is positive and for 22.6% negative.
En Frente de Todos leads the electoral preferences with a gap of 14 points with respect to Together for Change, while 19% remain undecided. The space that at the Buenos Aires level is referenced in the governor Axel Kicillof would add 33.6 points against 19.4 of the cambiemitas, while the extreme right would add 16.6% of votes and the Left Front 5%.
Conflict between powers
When asked whether the Supreme Court of Justice acts for political rather than legal reasons, the answers were divided almost equally: 40.3% were positive and 38.6% negative, while 21, 1% don’t know. The discredit of the courtiers is more intense among the humble and middle-aged sectors, where support for the ruling party is more intense.
A large majority admitted that the joy over the triumph of the men’s soccer team in the last World Cup lasts: 39.8% answered “a lot” and 17% “quite a lot”. The difference in responses according to the level of education is notable: for the most humble, with primary education, the feeling of intense joy is double that of those who state that it persists “little or not at all”. The persistence of positive sentiment among pro-government respondents is also much greater than among opponents.