The latest public indicators observed by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) reveal that the performance of the Spanish economy during the third quarter is negative. Specifically, the latest update of the MIPred model forecasts a fall of 0.3% until mid-August GDP compared to the second quarter, where the economy grew by 1.1%.

The public audit maintains a fall of 0.3% compared to its previous observation at the beginning of September. The total import of goods at constant prices, an indicator corresponding to July, has not changed the behavior of economic activity. The behavior of macroeconomic indicators forecasts, thus, a fall of 0.3% compared to last quarter and an increase in annual GDP of 3.3% with almost half (47.6%) observed.

The official perspectives of the Ministry of Economic Affairs headed by the first vice president Nadia Calviño, as published by first, and reiterated in an interview with this medium by the Secretary of State for the Economy, Gonzalo García Andrés, is of a moderation in growth , with the GDP still in positive records.

The MIPred model takes public data to make “short-term” estimates of the economic situation and thus be able to offer up-to-date data on GDP growth based on the behavior of the indicators “so that you have the most up-to-date view possible on the evolution of economic activity”, explains AIReF.

This model is similar to the one defended by the economic vice president, Nadia Calviño, and which caused a certain clash with the National Statistics Institute (INE) due to the methodological differences between the INE, which publishes the main macroeconomic data, and Nadia Calviño’s Ministry of Finance. , which defends an updated and daily calculation of GDP. So, the minister wanted to delve into access to Big Data and updated management to facilitate monitoring of the economy.

At the moment, the indicators of activity in the European environment do not give green signs but quite the opposite: they threaten a cooling down in the entire eurozone. The AIReF data anticipates this slowdown in the third quarter at the expense of what may happen with the other half of the indicators that remain to be observed and that will definitively show the behavior of the Spanish economy in a quarter that has not marked red numbers since 2013 (at the expense of the pandemic).

BBVA Research, also down

According to BBVA Research, the GDP could stagnate in the third quarter of the year (-0.2% quarterly). An example of the indicators that show sluggishness and support this view is enrollment in Social Security, which could remain constant compared to the second quarter. This week, the Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration advanced positive affiliation data for September, the month in which he expects to add 60,000 affiliates.

“This compares negatively with what usually happens at this time of year, when increases of 0.5% are observed (average in the last 20 years). This weakness in employment, together with the poor performance that labor productivity has been showing , predict a bad figure for GDP,” explains the chief economist, Miguel Cardoso.


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J. A. Allen

Author, blogger, freelance writer. Hater of spiders. Drinker of wine. Mother of hellions.

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