Nancy Pelosi upon her arrival in Tokyo.

Chinese military response to Pelosi’s trip scares South Korea and splashes Japan

the visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has provoked an unprecedented military reaction from China. On Wednesday, when the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives had just taken off from Taipeithe Asian giant began to carry out military maneuvers with ballistic missiles and live fire that have set off all the alarms on the island and, in general, throughout the region.

After enraging Beijing, US politics has traveled this Thursday to South Korea, where has done the same with North Korea. Especially for his visit to Panmunjom Joint Security Area, the demilitarized zone that separates the two Koreas.

There Pelosi has committed with his South Korean counterpart, Kim Jin-pyo, to achieve the denuclearization of Pyongyang. A position shared by the president of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, although he has decided mark certain distances with the US representative.

Nancy Pelosi upon her arrival in Tokyo.

Reuters

During her short stay in the country, Pelosi has met with her South Korean counterpart, but not with the head of government. Apparently, he is on vacation, which has not prevented him from filing a 40 minute phone conversation with the President of the US Congress. In the call, both politicians say they have reaffirmed its commitment to strengthen bilateral relations.

Late on Thursday, Pelosi has arrived at what will be the last stop on her Asian tour: Japan. Throughout Friday, the US legislator plans to hold talks with japanese prime ministerFumio Kishida, and with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hiroyuki Hosoda, respectively.

Some meetings that will take place hours after the Government of Japan has denounced that five ballistic missiles fired by China during maneuvers in the Taiwan Sea have fallen into waters belonging to its special economic zone (EEZ).

What will happen in Taiwan?

A long-term increase in China’s military presence in the Taiwan Strait and the use of hybrid warfare tactics against Taipei are the most possible consequences of the fleeting and controversial visit to Taiwan of Pelosi.

“This crisis accelerates the perception that the risk of a conflict in this decade is getting higher. China knows that Taiwan is not only essential in its modernization process, but it is also the thrust with which it could put an end to the US hegemony in the region and in the world,” he told Eph Xulio Riosdirector of the Observatory of Chinese Politics.

Less than 24 hours after Pelosi’s visitthe Chinese Army began maneuvers military with live fire around the island that included the closure of air and sea space in several areas, something that Taipei described as a “blockade”.

[China amedrenta a Taiwán usando misiles balísticos en una maniobra militar “sin precedentes”]

Also, in the last week China imposed trade sanctions to hundreds of Taiwanese food products, including citrus, various types of fish, and numerous processed foods.

A group of pro-China protesters steps on a photo of the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi,

A group of pro-China protesters steps on a photo of the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi,

Reuters

a provocation

For the experts, Washington has simply handed Beijing the arguments to increase military pressure on Taiwan, a territory over which China claims sovereignty and considered a rebellious province since in 1949 the nationalists of the Kuomintang withdrew there after losing the civil war against the communists.

“You can expect China to try to take advantage of the crisis in two senses: first, to encourage military and political measures that reinforce the sovereignty claimed over the island, which may include more committed actions by its Army by air and sea, affecting the airspace of Taiwan or to the middle line of the Strait that have been respected until now,” said Ríos.

[El camino hacia ‘un país, un sistema’ de Hong Kong: sin democracia a los 25 años de su vuelta a China]

In fact, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense denounced on Thursday a new Chinese aircraft raid in its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), of which the majority would have crossed the aforementioned median line.

Hong Kong as script

The expert considers that China could even “adopt legislative measures” as a unification law, and even a specific timetable for it and pointed to what happened in Hong Kong in the last two years as “the script to take control of the situation”.

“If there (after the massive pro-democracy protests of 2019) there was not a repressive massacre nor will there be military actions in Taiwan disproportionate. But yes qualitatively significant reaction, “she maintained.

“Disproportionate military actions are not expected in Taiwan, but a qualitatively significant reaction is expected”

A year after the Hong Kong protests, Beijing imposed a National Security Law that in practice, as international organizations have denounced, has curtailed fundamental rights and freedoms there and put dozens of activists and journalists in jail.

“What for Pelosi is a symbolic action, from which those who may sympathize with the United States have distanced themselves in her party and in Taiwan itself, offers China the possibility of perform another twist on the islanddistancing the ghost of appearing weak and fine-tuning the response”, argues Ríos.

Possible hybrid war

Meanwhile, Shiany Pérez-Cheng, an analyst associated with the British think tank Resilient Futures, gave her opinion in statements to Eph from Taipei that “the measures that China is going to take against Taiwan they will not be conventional warfare -the case of Ukraine-, but a gray area with hybrid war tactics”.

This means, specified the former professor at the Spanish University of Salamanca, “sanctions against exports, cyberattacks and further increasing pressure in the international arena, including the increase in selective propaganda and influence operations and economic coercion of third parties” to keep trying”suffocate taiwan” taking away the support of other countries.

[Tsai Ing-wen, la líder y abogada taiwanesa que planta cara a China con ayuda de Pelosi]

The sanctions, according to Pérez-Cheng, seek to “turn the Taiwanese against their government”, although he specified that the island You already have experience dealing with these kinds of situations. after those imposed on the export of pineapples to China last year, which has pushed Taiwan to diversify its market towards Japan, Australia and Europe.

Chinese PLA Eastern Theater Command drill brochure.

Chinese PLA Eastern Theater Command drill brochure.

Reuters

In turn, Xulio Ríos highlights economy as key so that in the Taiwanese local elections, next November, the electorate does not punish the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for its “temerity“by confronting Beijing head-on.

However, the other side of the coin will be China’s ability to “win over Taiwanese public opinion” and that “the crisis does not lead to greater electoral support for the PPD.”

All this connects with Pérez-Cheng’s opinion that the island was “aware that China’s retaliation will mostly be against Taiwan” and therefore not “hype” officially to the possible visit of the American leader before she landed in Taipei.

“We are probably facing the beginning of the fourth crisis of the Taiwan Strait (after those of 1954, 58 and 95-97) and surely there will be diplomatic, economic, military and strategic consequences that will be delayed in time”, summarizes Xulio Ríos .

Source: Elespanol

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