Drought, by sunspots?
Dr. Ing. Oscar Dölling, Director of the Program for Integral Management of Hydrographic Basins of the Faculty of Engineering of the UNSJ.

We have often heard that climate change is responsible for everything that is happening with the climate on Earth and specifically in San Juan. But in reality, what nobody tells us, perhaps because some hidden reason mobilizes him to generate myths of terror and chaos in the community (remember the expressions in 2010 of climatologists who said that San Juan and all of Argentina was becoming tropical) is that both the climate and its variability and cyclicity are governed almost 100% by the dynamics of the solar plasma, that is, the solar activity itself. To put it very simply, the sun rules the weather, there is no doubt about it. NASA itself came to publish articles that speak of the fact that we live in the atmosphere of the Sun, with all the reason and all the indisputable physical and scientific evidence.

The Sun therefore is the only source of energy responsible for heating and moving the atmosphere (winds); to heat and move the oceans (ocean and sea currents), to evaporate water from oceans, lakes, rivers and streams, to transport masses of atmospheric water vapor from one point to another on the planet ( atmospheric rivers), to melt the snows of the mountains and the Antarctic ice, to regulate the temperature of our atmosphere, to produce the daily variability of temperatures and maximum and minimum incident radiation from day to night, to produce the variability of temperatures and solar radiation from one season of the year to another and also the variability of incident solar radiation within a solar cycle and between one solar cycle and the next. Farmers know well what the sun is and how it impacts their crops.

Well then, since there is no other source of energy that gives rise to the climate, it will do us very good to start accepting what our ancestors already knew, that the Sun is the main responsible for typhoons, hurricanes, rains convective, of droughts, of snowfalls, of generating all the observed cyclicities of the daily weather, of the seasonal climate and its multi-annual variability.

COMPARISON of sunspots with runoff from the San Juan River.

The Sun is also directly responsible for all known phenomena such as ENSO (the famous El Niño and La Niña phenomenon) since it is the only source of energy that heats the oceans and mobilizes ocean currents that are of thermal and saline origin.

In other words, the Sun is the main responsible, with a statistical degree of determination of 92%, for the drought that we are experiencing today in San Juan, but not CO2, whose continuous increase does not present any cyclicity and therefore cannot be taken as a variable that allows us to explain any direct correlation with the observed climatic multiannual cyclicality. We can conclude, from the studies we have carried out over the last 20 years, that droughts can be predicted in duration and intensity, at least 2 years in advance, given that they are directly correlated with solar activity and that there are time lags between 12 and 24 months between solar activity and its impact on rainfall.

“For more than 4 years we have made this known to the public, governments and private levels from our program of Integral Management of Hydrographic Basins of the Department of Civil Engineering of the University of San Juan, although unfortunately we have not been listened to, not even by the nor by the users of the water. I attribute it to the hypnotic and anesthetic nature that the concepts of climate change generate in people, I usually hear in various spheres, everything is unpredictable, the rains intensify, the floods intensify, Argentina tropicalizes, the poles melt, and all because of CO2, that is, the final message is that today we cannot predict what is going to happen tomorrow, which is a complete fallacy. I am not at all against a culture of cleaning and pollution control in all its orders (water, oceans, land and atmosphere), but attributing magic powers of imbalance to CO2 and leaving aside solar activity, which is the source of all the energy produced by climatic variability, there I put a very strong limit, since it is a capital irresponsibility. Of course I am talking about the irresponsibility of some scientists who try to influence the political and economic actions of our peoples with half-truths.”

sun action is essential in these cases.

What we should also know is that solar activity has cycles. These cycles can be visualized through the counting of what are called Sunspots, that is, the Sun is not a constant as some would have us believe. The Sun is not only a plasma that rotates on its own axis with a different speed of rotation between its equator (it takes 25 days to go around) and its poles (it takes 36 days to go around), but it is also a great magnet. that changes polarity (positive or negative sign of its poles) approximately every 11 years. This difference in rotation is responsible for deforming the solar magnetic fields, generating the appearance of sunspots and increasing the solar radiation incident on the earth, sometimes even causing large detachments of solar coronal mass that impact the earth’s atmosphere, generating numerous interferences from radio and massive blackouts due to magnetic and electrical disturbances in the electricity transport and distribution networks.

There is much that we already know and even more we must understand about solar dynamics, but what is clear is that we are not going in the right direction if we cling to preconceived and canned ideas that, far from contributing to advancing in the knowledge of forecasts climatic events, separate us completely from the search for the true climatic precursors, as it is mainly the Sun. The Sun is the only source of energy and therefore its knowledge gives almost complete light today to everything that is happening on our planet with the weather. Far from stopping studying it, man should improve his knowledge of it. In fact, today scientists from NASA, ESA, the Chinese and the Japanese have already realized this and are investing, jointly and separately, billions of dollars in launching and maintaining over time a constellation of space solar observatories that Already today they help us to know more about the dynamics of our star king.

A climatic physical reality that has a lot to do with the physical, chemical and magnetic nature of the phenomena involved and very little to do with the selfish expressions of political and economic interests and that unfortunately they try to impose on reason by promoting and manipulating the public opinion.

incidence of the sun according to the year of the decade.

The Sun is inactive today (there are few sunspots), and that is why it is the drought that we are experiencing today in San Juan and much of Argentina, Chile and Brazil. Solar activity forecasts indicate that we will only be able to get out of this inactivity when we reach the solar maximum in 2025, and we will only have better flows in 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, we can only expect drought and some weak El Niño for 2023 or 2024. The irrigators and Governments should prepare to wait until 2026 or 2027 to fill the reservoirs and adapt their decisions to this solar situation.

“I hope that governments, producers, businessmen and the community in general do not take the shortcut of feeding convenient cracks, in reality there should be no cracks in the search for genuine knowledge if it is done with intellectual honesty, nor about the impact of solar activity on the climate, in our snowfalls, in our rains and in our droughts or about the impact of the greenhouse effect and the increase in the global average temperature, in reality the atmosphere does not present this crack, but everything must be studied as a whole and define exactly what is the degree of impact of each climate factor or forcing. Sometimes the lobby of certain economic or political interests daily blurs the hard and serious work of scientists who are trying to understand the complex reality of climate and investigating its causes and impacts”.

A climatic physical reality that has a lot to do with the physical, chemical and magnetic nature of the phenomena involved and very little to do with the selfish expressions of political and economic interests and that unfortunately they try to impose on reason by promoting and manipulating the public opinion.

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