POLITICS – “Ah above all, don’t talk to me about the popular primary”, we have been hearing for several weeks in the Jadot and Mélenchon camps. As for Anne Hidalgo, after having refused any primary, she changed hands on December 8, calling on her competitors to join her in such a process… to finally reconsider her position this week, leaving the PS in the embarrassment.
Everyone wants to move forward in their corridor, talk about substance, campaign initiatives like the olfactory meeting of the rebellious leader on Sunday January 16 in Nantes, but above all not about this citizen process born in 2020, which is taking more and more significance on the left. For the moment, only Christiane Taubira, who has just declared for the presidency, has agreed to “bend to the verdict”. Three other candidates too, but apart from Pierre Larrouturou, they are little known to the general public.
This January 15, the organizers of this vote which will take place online “by majority judgment in one round” (that is to say with a mention ranging from “very good” to “insufficient”), from January 27 to 30 , revealed the seven finalist candidates that the 120,000 voters already registered will be able to decide between. Originality: it is not necessary to accept the result to be in the running.
120,000 voters registered in the popular primary
What can change on the left after this novelty in the campaign? Then24 projects you into three possible scenarios, knowing that more could very well be added during the 85 days that separate us precisely from the first round.
Everything will depend, above all, on the number of participants. At this point, more than 120,000 citizens over the age of 16 are registered to vote. And they could be many more by January 23, the deadline for registration. Their objective is to reach as many people as possible in order to exceed the number of voters in the green primary in September, and above all to give popular legitimacy to the winner. Except that with the arrival of Christiane Taubira and the refusals of her competitors, the task becomes more complicated when the latter has promised “not to add an additional candidacy” in her camp.
1. Least Likely: Union
Everything also depends on who wins this election with an uncertain outcome. During a first tie in September, Christiane Taubira – not yet declared – had come out on top, but the electorate is expanding and the various parties – LFI, EELV, PS – could be tempted to call on their activists to participate in mass, in order to win it without supporting it. A billiard game would then be played out with several bands, in order to recover the popular legitimacy of the primary, without withdrawing and while continuing to criticize it from the front. If Jadot, Mélenchon or Hidalgo wins it, that’s what could happen. Except that it would be more difficult for them to call on others to support them even though they have not accepted the starting deal.
If Taubira wins the primary, the task becomes more complicated for her, because she would face a dilemma: to go to the end, to respect the vote of potentially several hundred thousand citizens who believe in her, or to give up in order not to add a candidacy. moreover, in accordance with what she had said.
2. One more application? Hidalgo “aspirated”?
This scenario can only happen if Taubira wins the popular primary. In this case and if Anne Hidalgo’s campaign still does not pass the 5% mark in the polls, the Socialist Party, aware of the financial difficulties of such a rout, could be tempted to line up behind the ex-guard. of the Seals of François Hollande. A not simple operation, because it would be a question of “unplugging” a candidate whom they have supported for several months. “This primary concerns only the socialist party which regulates its stories of currents”, breathed an ecological framework this January 15 while Jadot has already said that he would not participate, like Mélenchon. The PS could also choose to keep its candidate and if Taubira remains, the left will simply have won… one more candidacy.
Unless, and this is a possibility that seems tiny, that Christiane Taubira manages to generate such momentum from this vote that she would overshadow Jadot and Mélenchon in the polls to the point that they rally to her at the last moment. Jadot having already gone through the primary box and the unfortunate withdrawal in 2017, there is very little chance. Mélenchon highlights programmatic divisions such as there are so few. In any case, this could only happen before March 4, the official date for submitting applications for the first round. It would in any case be a huge victory for the collective citizen.
3. A zero-sum game
If Taubira is not chosen, then we would find ourselves in a kind of zero-sum game. Because by promising to respect the vote of the primary, Christiane Taubira should logically accept the winner and therefore support him or her. We would therefore find ourselves at the same starting point as before his candidacy in December: Jadot, Mélenchon, Hidalgo, Roussel. And Taubira in support of one of them.
If one of the three candidates from civil society proposed by the popular primary (Pierre Larrouturou, Charlotte Marchandise and Anna Agueb-Porterie) wins, it would be a huge surprise and it would pose a fundamental problem for the popular primary which would add a candidate when they wanted to do everything to bring them together. The co-organizers themselves are waiting for the result of January 30 before taking any new political position, apart from that of “doing everything to unite the left”.
Finally, if Jadot or Mélenchon wins the primary, they should congratulate themselves and say that this confirms their initial strategy. Anne Hidalgo will not be able to use the same argument, because she once supported the union, but would necessarily benefit from it. This result, often caricatured by its opponents as a “giant poll”, will be, whatever happens, an indicator for left-wing voters in view of the presidential election which could tilt their vote.
See also on Then24: Presidential: what Taubira can bring more to the left according to his sympathizers