In 2022, the ruble exchange rate will remain relatively stable. The analysts interviewed by Lenta.ru cite a likely decrease in geopolitical tensions and an increase in world prices for fuel, primarily gas, as the main reasons.
The minimum value announced by the interlocutor of Lenta.ru is 67 rubles per dollar and 72 rubles per euro by the end of December, the maximum is 80 rubles per dollar and 79-87 rubles per euro. By the end of 2022, the dollar exchange rate will be approximately 73.4 rubles, and the euro – 79.5 rubles.
“In a floating regime, the exchange rate always corresponds to the fundamental factors, and we rather suggest thinking in terms of how much the fundamental factors themselves – primarily sovereign risk and commodity prices – are at equilibrium levels. We assess the current level of sovereign risk as overestimated against the historical norm, “said Alexander Isakov, senior economist at VTB Capital for Russia and the CIS.
At the same time, Denis Popov, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank, believes that 2022 will be the continuation of the “record-long period of undervaluation of the ruble”. Investment strategist “BCS World of Investments” Alexander Bakhtin believes that Russian assets will attract foreign investors due to relatively high rates.
Analysts at Tinkoff Investments believe that the risks that can affect the ruble exchange rate in 2022 will be fairly balanced. The current account surplus will play in favor of the Russian currency [раздела платежного баланса], which will be achieved thanks to high commodity prices, and tight monetary policy of the Central Bank.
A year ago, analysts polled by Lenta.ru predicted the dollar price at 73.4 rubles, the euro – 79.5 rubles. In reality, the dollar was worth 73.75 rubles, the euro – 83.35 rubles.