More than a year to go Qatar World Cup 2022 and several qualifying dates in the different confederations due to the delay generated in the calendar by the coronavirus pandemic. But the anxiety can and the desire that the maximum appointment of the football arrives already enables us to think about different possible scenarios for November next year.

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Barely a month passed since the last FIFA date but in the games of this period many things took hold and others varied. For example, there are already the first two teams classified to the World Cup in addition to the venue, which logically has its place assured. Is about Germany and Denmark, who have already triumphed in their areas of the European Qualifiers and got a ticket.

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WHAT DOES THE LAST RANKING INDICATE?

The most recent update that FIFA made in its ranking is dated September 16, so in the middle, games were played that changed the final location of the affiliated teams. At least of those who fight, after getting the pass to the tournament, for a place among the group leaders.

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The official ranking, which now appears on the page of the football mother house, has these top 10 teams: 1- Belgium, 2- Brazil, 3- England, 4- France, 5- Italy, 6- Argentina, 7- Portugal, 8- Spain, 9- Mexico and 10- Denmark.

The only insured is Qatar, which will be part of Group A.

The only insured is Qatar, which will be part of Group A.

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In this way, Qatar would lead the first group for being the host and the best seven would enter the draw to decide which zone they will lead in the beginning of the contest. That is Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Italy, Argentina and Portugal they would be the seeds according to that classification. As long as, of course, they achieve the passage to the tournament.

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It is striking how far it appears Germany, which after a bad World Cup in Russia and failing to do a good job in the last European Championship, ranks 14th in the table and he can no longer make it into the top seven, even though he is one of those already ranked. The same happens with the Netherlands (11th) and Uruguay (12th), two other greats that will not be able to integrate Pot 1.

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AND WITH THE UPDATED RANKING?

After this triple FIFA date, the equation used by the organism to determine the locations allows, by calculator, to reorganize the scheme and determine who would be in the privileged places. FIFA’s SUMA algorithm takes into account the positions of the teams when scoring points, as well as the context of the match (friendly, cup, playoffs, among others).

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Alexis Tamayo, better known as MisterChip, the famous journalist specialized in statistics, calculated how the groups would look at this moment if the ranking be updated and that version would be the decisive one before Qatar 2022. And although there are few variants, there are already six teams that have secured their place in the top seven. Together with Qatar, they will be head of the zone if they qualify for the Cup.

Messi and Ney, seeded and almost classified.  AFP

Messi and Ney, seeded and almost classified. AFP

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Besides the immovable host, the first six would not have variations with respect to the table of September 16 and all of them already know that they will have the benefit of not crossing with other more powerful rivals at least in the first phase. If it is passed in clean: Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Italy, Argentina will finish in the top seven all the way before the World Cup.

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With those six inside – there may be variations that do not change their privileged place – there are four other applicants for the number 8 position of the seeds. And there are four suitors who will fight to be seventh in the ranking before the 2022 World Cup in Qatar arrives. For now, that location narrowly belongs to Spain, which scored 1,688 points.

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The last Nations League finalist has just six more units in the system than Portugal, which is on the prowl and with many chances to pass it. Mexico also appears in the fight, with 1673 and Denmark, which accumulates 1669 points. A stumble leaves them out of the fight, but a string of wins could put them as the top seed.

Mexico struggles to stay among the best seven.  Reuter.

Mexico struggles to stay among the best seven. Reuter.

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If successful, it would be the third time in history that Mexico has led a group with this format, after Germany 2006 and in 1986, as host.. An almost unprecedented and very important opportunity: to be part of Pot A and avoid weight rivals at the start of the tournament. Sure, unless I touch Spain, Germany or someone else who for the moment would not be seeded.

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WHAT IF THE FIRST DOES NOT QUALIFY?

From the first to the sixth they have their place assured as seed as long as they logically get their ticket to the World Cup. Some have it very close and others not so close. Brazil and Argentina, those of South America, have the ticket practically removed and they only need to confirm it in the last dates of the Qualifiers.

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In Europe, the picture is more complex. Belgium is well on its way, as is France, which has three more points and one game less than its immediate pursuer. England also carries the distance of a victory and the fixture favors him: he must receive Albania and the weak San Marino at the end of the table.

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Quite different is the case of Italy, which is leading only by better goal difference than Switzerland, who will be the rival on the next date, the next to last. If you tie or win, he will keep the upper hand and come to the close depending on himself, if not, he will have to pray for other results.

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Between the four suitors, Spain is very complicated. Today he appears in the repechage zone and to leave second place he needs to beat the leader Sweden within two dates on the last day. Portugal also comes below Serbia, whom it receives at the closing of the contest. An ending that defines everything. Denmark, for its part, is already classified.

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The Nordics will be in Qatar.  EFE.

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Mexico, the only Concacaf candidate, seems destined to go to the next World Cup. Leader in the final octagonal, he is six points from Panama, who today is in the playoff zone and eight from Costa Rica, the first to stay out. There are still eight games to go, but the Aztecs hope they will have no problems.

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If any of the top seven does not qualify for the World Cup despite being in that privileged place, he will leave his space to the one who follows him in the table ordered by FIFA.

PARTICULAR SERIAL HEADS

Although the presence of Mexico or Denmark might surprise some, the truth is that there were teams with less history and weight in Pot A. It is not necessary to go far back: in Russia 2018, Poland led Group H and came last, behind Colombia, Japan and Senegal. In Brazil 2014, Colombia and Switzerland were seededwhile Italy, England and France do not. Romania, in France 98, another case.

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