The ERC factor in Sánchez's future

Proud to have ended the hegemony of the Catalan right, represented in the political heirs of Jordi Pujol, the leaders of Republican Left de Catalunya value their dealings with the PSOE also as a way to prevent the Spanish right from returning to power. “It would be terrible,” I hear one of those leaders say in the short distance.

It does not surprise me that the Minister of Finance, Maria Jesus Montero, refer to the Junqueras party as “A privileged partner”. Its 13 deputies allow the Government to speak of exhaustion of the legislature, in the confidence that they will support the most expansive PGE in history, with 18% of investments destined to improve the lives of the people in Catalonia.

But not only that, which is on track, among other things, thanks to the excellent personal relationship between Gabriel Ruffian and Minister Bolaños. As strange as it may seem in a centrifugal force of the system, the ERC factor has also become a guarantee of survival for Sánchez and the PSOE-Podemos coalition beyond the next general elections.

Junts calls ERC a ‘traitor’. And ERC denounces the silence of Junts when talking about the alternative to Sánchez in Moncloa

It is not a gratuitous hypothesis. It is based on reasoning aired in public and in private by its leaders before the scenarios announced by the polls. With a fixed idea: not to be responsible for an eventual jump of the PP to power. The mantra is widely circulated in party headquarters: “If it happens, it will never be our fault.”

And in this, too, they differ from their Junts partners. They see them as the ‘straight‘Catalan pastored by Puigdemont, very reticent about the’ dialogue table ‘and budget negotiations with the Government on things to eat. Decisions that affect the day-to-day life of Catalans (more self-government, more funding), not identity fantasies that are currently unattainable. Which produces two immediate effects. One, Junts endorses ERC the qualifier of ‘traitor‘to the cause. And other, ERC denounces the indolent silence of Junts when in Catalonia they talk about the alternative to Sánchez in the Moncloa.

Does this mean a resignation from the party of Junqueras, Aragonès and Rufián to the cause of the independence of Catalonia? Absolutely. As Joan Tardà, his export spokesperson in Congress, says, “we have seen that the summit was too high and we returned to base camp to try another way”. In different words, it is the recognition of the “collective failure” of the ‘process’ and the current theory of the ‘meanwhile’, the accumulation of forces, or Gramscian gradualism.

With Aragonés in the presidency of the Generalitat, furious independence is deactivated. The magic of 1-O has faded

Any resemblance to the ‘insurrectionary october‘announced by some own voices and strangers to sovereignty will have been pure coincidence. With Aragonès in the presidency of the Generalitat, the furious independence movement is deactivated. The magic of 1-O has faded. Only vagueness emerged from the first meeting of the table on the political future of Catalonia, except for the will to continue talking. And in terms of mobilizations, the bottle widely defeated the stars.

Even the Parliament rejected the CUP’s proposal to hold a self-determination referendum this legislature. But ERC does not rule it out for the next one, through negotiation and within the legal frameworks that, of course, allow a reform of the Statute of autonomy.

I explain. The idea boils in the ERC staff. It would not be independence yes or independence no, because it is unconstitutional, but it could be the legally planned referendum to ratify an eventual statutory reform, in which the independentists would campaign for the no. They would lower their arms accepting the yes of the majority of Catalans. But they would be charged with national and international reason if voters were inclined to no.

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