Married comes out of the Convention strengthened: it surpasses the PSOE by 31 seats and would have an absolute majority with Vox

The PP consolidates its expectations of success. Today he would win the general elections with 31 seats ahead of the PSOE and would reach a comfortable absolute majority with Vox. The electoral survey of Data10 for OKDIARIO returns to those of Pablo Casado one of the three seats that they had lost in the poll two weeks ago, which added to the two of Navarra Suma places the formation of the center-right in 129 seats, 38 more than in the 2019 elections. The PSOE loses two compared to the last poll and stays at 98 and Vox would keep the 52 deputies that it now has in Congress. PP and Vox would grab 181 seats, five above the absolute majority.

The survey, carried out after the Convention where Casado called for the unification of the conservative and liberal vote in the PP, returns to the first party of the right the upward trend that had been truncated for the first time in the poll 15 days ago, when the controversy with Isabel Diaz Ayuso Due to the leadership of the party in Madrid, it had a negative impact on Casado’s electoral expectations.

The results that Data10 offers allow Casado to maintain the strategy with which it is convinced that it will arrive at La Moncloa. The leader of the PP believes that he does not need an absolute majority to be the future president of the Government, but a broad victory that allows him to overcome the investiture to later govern without partners in the Council of Ministers, such as Ayuso in Madrid or Rajoy in his day.

A faithful voter

The PP bases its electoral strength on several factors. The first, the great loyalty of his electorate, the highest of all his adversaries. 79% of those who voted for Married in 2019 would do so again now, while only 72% of those who voted for Pedro Sanchez they would repeat now.

Second, the great absorption capacity for center-right voters that they did not bet on the PP two years ago. Thus, 34% of the Spanish who bet on Citizens would now do so for the PP. Those of Casado also grow at the expense of Vox: 19% of those who today would vote for the PP would come from the formation he leads Santiago Abascal. Those who would abandon Sánchez for Casado will account for 6% of the votes that the electoral poll of Data10 grants today to the PP.

If elections are held today, the PSOE would not reach 100 seats and would stay 22 lower than what he got at the polls in 2019. Only 72% of those who chose the socialist ballot would do so again now. The Socialists would only be the most voted party in Barcelona (8 seats, as many as ERC), Seville, Cádiz, Huelva and Jaén. In Madrid he would barely get 9 deputies, only one more than Vox and four less than the PP, a party that prevails in the rest of the Spanish provinces except Ceuta (Vox), Lérida, (ERC), Tarragona (ERC), Gerona (JxCAT ), Álava (PNV), Guipúzcoa (PNV) and Vizcaya (PNV).

Vox resists

Vox would repeat its 2019 electoral result: 52 seats. With a fidelity of 72%, those of Abascal compensate the flight of voters to the PP with those who do it in the opposite direction. In addition, 9% of the votes that Vox would add today would come from Citizens.

In fourth place, downward, would be Podemos, which would see 13 of the 35 seats it won in 2019 disappear. The loyalty of its voters is the lowest of the four great political forces: only 70% of those who they bet on Pablo Iglesias before their goodbye to politics they would do it today for Ione Grass. Voters disenchanted with Podemos would now take refuge in the PSOE, abstention and other political options such as Más País (which rises to 6 seats) and the BNG, which grows in Galicia and snatches a seat from the PSOE with respect to the Data10 poll of two weeks ago.

The fifth political force in the Congress of Deputies would be ERC (14 seats), followed by JxCAT (10). And after the Catalan independence forces, only the PNV (7), Más País (6) and Bildu (5) would obtain their own parliamentary group. Ciudadanos would lose 9 of its 10 deputies and would be reduced to the seat that Ines Arrimadas would conquer in Madrid.

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