15 Sep. 2021 16:51 clock
The Taliban are battle-tested but have no management experience. The lack of socio-economic stabilization could lead to a split in the ranks of the militia and a civil war in Afghanistan, according to Japan’s leading expert on Central Asia.
Prospects for a stabilization of Afghanistan seem extremely vague, as the Taliban have neither management experience nor suitable personnel to run the country. The threat of renewed civil war therefore seems pretty real, Masato Toriya, Japan’s leading expert on Central Asia and researcher at Tokyo University for Study Abroad, told TASS news agency on Tuesday. He noted:
“There are practically no human resources capable of really dealing with the current circumstances. Even if there were some prospects of socio-economic stabilization with the help of neighboring countries, this goal would be achieved because the country was exhausted by four decades War is an incredible challenge. The deterioration in living conditions is difficult to stop, which will fuel dissatisfaction, which is likely to create an internal split in the Taliban. “
“The prospect of Afghanistan sliding again into civil war cannot be denied. Under these conditions, the fastest and most diverse aid is provided not only by neighboring countries, but also by the USA, the EU, Japan and Russia , the key to the socio-economic stabilization of the country. “
Threat to neighboring states
According to the Japanese Central Asia expert, however, the US and EU are unlikely to recognize the Taliban and provide economic support to Afghanistan because they believe the militia is violating the rights of women and minorities and trampling on democratic values. Regarding the situation with neighboring countries, Toriya stated:
“The neighboring countries are one more thing. Pakistan, Iran, the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and China are threatened with an influx of refugees and the spread of terrorism if the situation in Afghanistan continues to destabilize.”
“It is unclear whether they will officially recognize the Taliban’s authority, but it seems likely that they will provide both immediate and longer-term assistance to prevent the situation from deteriorating.”
Toriya also mentioned the contacts that have already been made by representatives of China and other neighboring countries of Afghanistan in order to coordinate policy towards the Taliban.
After the US announced its intended troop withdrawal in the spring, the Taliban launched a large-scale offensive to regain control of Afghanistan. On August 15, militia entered the capital Kabul without encountering resistance, while Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. At the beginning of September, the US troops had left Afghanistan completely, ending their almost 20-year presence there.
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