With the newspaper on Monday, and just this one, perhaps nothing has happened that should not have happened.
As you know or imagine, writing so hot on the data is not easy.
As the days go by, of course, particular numbers can be better measured. That there are several.
The first, which mostly does not interest anyone, is a very considerable electoral turnout if one takes into account the pandemic framework and the forecasts of generalized apathy.
Wow: after all, they were primary elections, and almost 70 percent of the electoral roll voted. Where did the warnings of a shocking abstention go?
After, and before the global numbers, it will be necessary to scrutinize / compare with stricter rigor, not in a hurry, some elements such as the following, which intermingle certainties and questions. They go in random order:
* Was it shown that the photo of Olivos, the phraseological gaffes and the “delay” in mass vaccination played a fundamental role? Or the central thing was an economic situation to which the majority did not allow him to apologize?
* The extreme right expressed as a libertarian who made a great choice in CABA is a disgusting episode, wherever it is observed. Before wondering what the germ of delusions of that size is, which is fine, do not hesitate to be horrified.
* Officialist defeats such as those of Entre Ríos, Chaco, Santa Fe, La Pampa (others, such as Chubut, were quite predictable), lead to marking as seriously deteriorated the relationship between the national ruling party and the once “league of governors”.
* The opposition did well by radicalizing their speech. Considering, above all, the result of Buenos Aires and specifically of its suburbs, Was Cristina missing more? Obviously it is counterfactual, but, on the ground, do not hesitate to ask yourself the question.
* It is also obvious that there was a rough vote. But it is not so obvious whether that represents confidence in the opposition or that anger was simply channeled through it.
None of all this, neither in general nor in particular, modifies that the defeat of the Government is enormous in its symbolic category.
The eventual accounts of the conformation of Congress will come, but the truth is that no one thinks that the vote was taken with the quality of the candidates in mind. This was a plebiscite on government management.
As we will briefly expand the lines ahead, despite everything it is the Government that has in its hands to flee in a positive direction from this blow that was not expected.
Furthermore, it is the only recourse left to him.
What is not clear is how likely it will be that it does not add up to depression, much less how much it will hit essential changes.
Another obvious point is that the Frente de Todos needs to preserve its political unity at (almost) any cost.
The defeats are friends that horizons are confused and the Government must not leave the flank to show itself in crisis.
What is coming from the opposition, in its entirety, will be an immense destabilization game. Therefore, the firm gestures of the government cast that remains or is renewed will be key. Of the Government and of the coalition.
And as an apostille, the mention of the new and great failure of the polls should not be avoided, including the ballot box.
Beyond the fact that all the consultants admitted the uncertainty because, precisely, they had just caught fire; Beyond the fact that the absence of face-to-face surveys was influenced by the health situation and its costs; Beyond all that is excused, neither the pollsters close to the ruling party nor the adherents of the opposition, in their reserved forecasts, even remotely foresaw these results.
But the icing on the cake was missing, which was the set of numbers transcended throughout the day by each other.
That led not only to the government sympathizing communicators to get caught up in hasty celebratory analyzes, but also to the opponents leaving at 18 with faces and voices of wake.
The changemite leadership itself showed in its first appearances an evident sense of defeat, compared to unofficial figures from Buenos Aires that made a very significant difference and able to calmly compensate for the falls foreseen in the larger districts.
But it was the excessive euphoria of the candidates and leaders of the FdT that led to the prediction that, without a doubt, there must be irreversible, corroborated data, surely coming from witness tables that are proof of any surprise.
How is it possible that such a mistake was made? Wasn’t there already enough experience with the mistakes even immediately prior, as it was that the FdT itself was surprised by the distance in its favor in the 2019 primaries?
In the midst of the climate of unease that floods the ruling party at this time and the enormous challenge that it now faces, the issue seems minor and in fact it is. But it is still another symptom of several things to correct, starting with unusual flaws in how popular temperature is measured by those who do have a device to check it much better.
The worst the government could do is flail itself, anyway. And its cadres and militants have the same responsibility.
However, moving from now to November requires specific stimuli that excite outside of speeches that, it was clear, are not enough if it is only about explanations (the pandemic, the consequent downturn in the economy, the media aggression).
It was revealed indigestible that inflationary indices that make up world records could not be tamed. That at least no attempt has been made to show greater strength against price makers. Nor, without losing sight of the tremendous obstacles imposed by the bug, has there not been a display of new, basic ideas that promote a productive scheme that is more attentive to the sectors of the popular economy and to the support of SMEs.
That it should be shuffled and given again, as was said here a week ago regarding victory or defeat, there is not the slightest doubt.
But the principle, very difficult to assimilate in these moments of grief, is to understand that yesterday there was the great national survey. Neither less nor more.
It will be necessary to see what it means in particular what the President said last night about having taken note of the voice of the people (although it is not true that he is never wrong), and starting today with the corrections of what was obviously done wrong.
Surely, as one of the aspects pointed out will be communication, without pretending to minimize it – this space has been critical in that sense – it should be remembered that when there are serious communication failures, it is because, first, there are serious political failures.
Not only the government itself but also its addicted media must urgently review their obsessive pursuit of the agenda set by the opposition.
But to replace that, actions must be available to take the place of the propositional desert.
And that means, as was also pointed out so many times, that you can’t have a million friends and not get mad at anyone. (Except with the outrageous means of the opposite path, as if that also gave rise to surprise, as if it was not known with which oxen to plow and as if it were a matter of answering with the indignometer).
If two models really confront each other and no matter how clichéd it may be or may seem, it must be demonstrated with facts rather than with rhetorical arguments.