The doctor Alejandro Macías Hernández, who was the Health Commissioner in the flu pandemic A-H1N1 in 2009 in Mexico, he released his analysis on the future of the covid in the country and assured that, apparently, it is “seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.”
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In videos published on his social networks, Macías explained that the covid seems to have a two year cycle, similar to what was experienced between 1918 and 1919 with the influenza pandemic, so a “way out” may be “in sight” towards the end of 2021, which would allow to start 2022 with greater optimism.
According to the projections established by Dr. Macías, for each case of covid diagnosed in Mexico, there are actually 25 or 30 more, so by September 2021, according to the specialist, at least 80 million have already been infected of Mexicans.
In reference to the peaks of cases that have been seen in the world, and identified in Mexico In August 2020, January 2021 and August 2021, the 2009 influenza czar explained that this is due to the appearance of the covid variants, like the United Kingdom, the Brazilian or the Delta.
Considering the vaccination rate in Mexico, if this is maintained, the doctor Alejandro Macías noted that, “In an optimistic scenario”, cases could drop to a point where the covid pandemic becomes a little more manageable towards December 2021.
“We could say that we already seem to be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel,” said Macías Hernández in his video posted on Twitter.
Is the end of the COVID-19 Pandemic nearing? pic.twitter.com/M7wHBWIDQB
– Alejandro Macias (@doctormacias) September 13, 2021
Macías also explained that the covid “He is not going to go”Therefore, in early 2022 (during winter) there could be a seasonal peak, which means that it would be circulating at the same time as the influenza virus and the respiratory syncytial virus, which would be a good sign.
In a less optimistic scenario, Macías pointed out that the covid could be extended until 2022, although this is less likely because in Mexico many people will have immunity from vaccination and because they do not believe that there will be the entry of other variants that can suppress the Delta.
“In the optimistic scenario, we would be seeing the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico (by December 2021), but it does not mean that the virus will go away. The end of the pandemic means that we are going to enter a stage of greater coexistence with the virus on a seasonal basis, ”said Macías Hernández.