14/09/2021 – 21:34
The rise in electricity prices continues unabated to consumers. In fact, today the price of electricity once again sees historic highs at 172.78 euros / MVh, an increase of almost 20 euros in a single day. The uproar caused by the incessant increases in the electricity pool and the measures adopted by the Government to alleviate electricity bills have had a direct impact on the titles of the main electricity marketers listed on the Ibex 35.
Yesterday, the day in which the Ministry of Ecological Transition approved a package of measures that will mean withdrawing 2,600 million euros from the accounts of the electricity companies to reduce the benefits produced by the increase in the cost of natural gas in other technologies such as renewables that go On the market, hydroelectric or nuclear, investors threw themselves en masse to remove the securities of the benchmark electricity companies in Spain from their portfolios. We talk about losses of 2,297 million euros for Iberdrola, Endesa and Naturgy.
The market penalty to national electricity companies was not a thing of the last day, it is also visible throughout the last months of the year. Since reaching its maximum levels of the present 2021, Endesa has lost 4,489 million euros in capitalization, Iberdrola a total of 15,238 million euros and Naturgy, the one that best withstood the impact, about 708 million. In other words, we are talking about a total figure of 20,435 million euros.
In the last 24 hours, marked by the announcement of the Government, investor punishment for Iberdrola was 1,114 million euros. During the day, 1.71% was left on the stock market and fell to a price of 10.08 euros.
In total, since Ignacio Sánchez Galn’s company reached its historical highs on the stock market, on January 8, reaching 12.04 euros, the company has already gone from having a market value of 79,408 million euros to capitalizing 64,170 million.
“We initially estimate that both Iberdrola and Endesa will face a hit of some 1,100 million euros and 1,000 million euros in profits before taxes, respectively, between the second half of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022,” analysts say JP Morgan, who point out that Naturgy and Acciona Energa will also be affected but to a lesser extent.
Morgan Stanley experts have also focused their analysis on these two firms, “we see Endesa and Iberdrola as the most exposed to the new measures announced.” That is, although the experts see probable that the reductions of the benefits weigh on the values and the country risk has increased, “we do not expect that the values will suffer the impact of these measures in the short term permanently, since it is expected that its application is temporary “, they clarify.
Endesa, the most penalized
Of the three main national electricity companies, the most penalized was precisely the firm led by Jos Bogas, Endesa, with losses of 1,123 million euros in the course of the last day, from 21,673 million euros to 20,550 million.
In other words, the power company reduced its market capitalization by more than 5 percentage points in a single day. Specifically, Endesa fell 5.44% on the stock market on Tuesday, becoming the lowest value of the day of the entire index of reference in the country, until reaching a price of 19.41 euros per share.
“We expect a negative reaction in share prices, particularly from Endesa, the most affected utility company,” they say from Barclays.
Since May 28, the day it reached its annual highs, with a price of 22.25 euros per share, the firm has gone from 25,039 million euros to 20,264 million on the stock market.
For its part, although it was also dyed Red, Naturgy’s losses were the most moderate: 90 million euros were left on the last day. It is the company that has suffered the least last impact and that has shown the best evolution over the course of the year, as it is the only one whose shares have appreciated since January with a 15% increase.
According to RBC analysts, the latest measures pose a clear “regulatory risk for the sector”, as already advanced by Spanish investment firms. “They appear to be designed to limit the effect of the gas price, dragging down the prices achieved by nuclear and hydroelectric energy, which have the greatest impact on Endesa and Iberdrola.” Naturgy would have to be the company “most affected by a cap on regulated rates, although its impact should be limited,” experts point out, as the three companies are the ones with the highest natural gas production.
Currently, the company chaired by Francisco Reyns accumulates a total capitalization of 21,176 million euros, compared to the 21,884 that it was worth on July 27, a market session in which its maximum levels were reached at 22.26 euros per title.