The Ministry of the Interior released this Monday the final count of presenteeism in Sunday’s election: 66.21 percent of the register electoral. 22,765,590 citizens went to vote. The percentage is the lowest since the PASO, in 2011. If a parallel is made with the last exclusively legislative elections, those of 2017, in the PASO of that year 72.3 percent voted and in the general elections – that is, those that are equivalent to those that will take place on November 14 – 77.61 percent went to the polls. It is not unreasonable to think that in this year’s general election there could be 11% more voters than last Sunday. According to the pollsters, the non-attendance was also a sign of anger, especially from humble sectors of Peronism.

Although there is still a lot to analyze, some data on attendance attract attention: districts that have a strong Peronist vote had very low turnout, while more opposition districts had more than 70 percent turnout at the polls. Moreno, 66 percent; Florencio Varela 65 percent; compared to Vicente López (72%) or San Isidro, also 72%.

It is also useful to verify the previous presenteeisms. In the 2019 presidential election, 76.5% of the electoral roll voted in the PASO. Always in presidential races the appeal is greater. Then, in the October 2019 general election, 8% went to vote. In the PASO of 2017 there were six points of presenteeism more than this year and in 2013, which were also parliamentary elections, ten more points: 76.83% approached the ballot box.

The impact of the pandemic may continue to be felt in November and there may be a couple of points less presentism than usual, but always seven or eight percent more than this Sunday, at least.

In the Casa Rosada and in La Plata they consider that an analysis must be made of that population that did not go to vote. One hypothesis is that there is a high proportion of poor sectors, perhaps angry because they lost their construction jobs, their jobs, and did not receive the necessary assistance. “There were ten days of rain, which means mud and difficulties in the third cordon of Greater Buenos Aires and in many poor neighborhoods in much of the country. There was the version that there were many queues in schools. All of this added to an already angry fringe that ended up not going to vote ”, diagnosed Roberto Bacman. In the government they think that these sectors must be reached with political and economic measures, but also with strong activity from the mayors, who participated little in the campaign.

It is true that the last two sections between the PASO and the general ones meant a movement of votes more towards Together for Change than towards the Frente de Todos. In 2019, Mauricio Macri lost the PASO by 16 points and finished in the generals only eight. In 2017, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner defeated Esteban Bullrich by less than one point in the PASO, with the senatorial position at stake, but then in general, Bullrich beat CFK by three. The consultants in electoral campaigns maintain that this time the percentage of those who did not vote was higher than 2017, there is evidence that it was in humble sectors and, in addition, the inmates in Juntos por el Cambio were attractive, while there was nothing at stake in the Front of All. The dispute between Diego Santilli versus Facundo Manes strengthened the alliance; the same as María Eugenia Vidal versus Ricardo López Murphy or that of Córdoba between Luis Juez and Mario Negri. In other words, there was more incentive to vote on the side of the opposition.

A priori, it is about analysis and speculation, but it is clear that a huge mass of voters who did not show up on Sunday will vote in November. Of course there is the possibility that those who were absent vote in the same sense as those who were present at the PASO. But there can also be changes. Be that as it may, it is a very important strip to which you will have to pay close attention.

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