The Ministry of Economy confirmed in the last hours that it will present the 2022 Budget bill to Congress this Wednesday, which would include as central estimates a growth of the economy that will be around 3 and 4%, a deficit level of between 3 and 3 , 5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product and inflation close to 35%, as Infobae was able to reconstruct according to official sources.
The economic team is still working on closing the data. The Palacio de Hacienda has a date until this Wednesday to raise the initiative to parliament, as established by the Financial Administration Law. From the Ministry of Economy they ratified that “they are working under the established deadlines” and that the project of income and expenses for next year will enter Congress tomorrow and that it would be defended this Thursday by Martín Guzmán.
The text of the law will include the main macroeconomic variables of 2022, among which are projections of inflation, exchange rate, variation of GDP and level of fiscal deficit, among others. Some of these numbers are especially important, since they are part of the ongoing conversations with the International Monetary Fund, so the fine figure will end up depending on the resolution of that negotiating table.
Minister Guzmán, however, worked with some preliminary ranges of action. According to what this medium was able to know, the economic team estimates a growth in activity that is between 3 and 4 percent, that is, a lower figure than was officially expected a few months ago, when an initial number it accounted for an expansion of between 4.5 and 5 percent.
Regarding the path of fiscal deficit, the economic team expects to reduce the imbalance in public accounts in a range of between 3 and 3.5% of GDP, which would imply a cut close to one percentage point in relation to the goal set for this year, 4.5 percent.
Guzmán could go to Congress this Thursday to defend the 2022 Budget: Photos: Charly Azcue / Senate Communication.
With that arc of between 3 and 3.5% of GDP expected primary deficit, the margin to “exceed” this year’s goal, something that most private sector analysts expected after the fiscal performance of the first part of the year. year, it would be less.
In the first seven months of the year, the Economy registered 0.7% primary red, which responded to the fact that the treasury’s income was higher than expected due to the rise in international commodity prices -and the collection of more rights of exports that this implied- and the collection of the extraordinary contribution to the great fortunes. On the spending side, however, some relevant items such as social spending and retirement spending had a cut in real terms.
The 2022 Budget would include as central estimates a growth of the economy that will be around 3 and 4%, a deficit level of between 3 and 3.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product and an inflation close to 35 percent
Regarding the price increase stipulated for 2022, the Ministry of Economy believes that inflation should show a deceleration next year to a figure close to 35 percent per year. In this way, the price hike would “return” to the level -at least the one expected by the Executive Power- of 2020, when it ended at 36.1 percent.
This inflation calculation for 2022 would imply, logically, that the Government expects this year to end with a pattern of increasing prices of goods and services closer to 40% from end to end by 2021. Currently, with the seven months contemplated by According to the official Indec data, the CPI accumulates 29.1% inflation.
The premise of an annual cut of about five percentage points was one of the premises argued by Minister Martín Guzmán at the beginning of this year, just before the first price data reflected by the statistical agency was higher than expected in the official dispatches, which was centrally attributed to the rise in commodities that had an impact on local prices.