The winners, the losers and the challenges for the Government

Voting was done normally and with an acceptable level of participation considering the health circumstances. Care protocols were followed, citizens adapted to delays and discomfort. It was a serene day, without any noteworthy incidents. The result began to be known at 9:30 p.m. with advanced scrutiny, in accessible and easy-to-read supports. The electoral system worked very well, something that usually happens but is always good news.

The results were surprising, they left predictions paying and caused a lot of news from the mouths of the ballot box. It was voted in 24 provinces. From drawer that the map shows disparities, local color, variations. But the ensemble delivered a resounding verdict, General. These are Simultaneous and Mandatory Open Primaries (STEP): the senators and deputies who will enter Congress will be elected in November. It is undeniable, in any case, that the figures demarcated a very adverse scenario for the national government. Whether measured in the total sum of votes, as in the provinces that won each force, as in the perspectives for the Chambers if the trends specified yesterday were repeated.

Together for Change (JxC) was widely imposed in the four provinces with the most voters and seats: Buenos Aires, Ciudad Autónoma (CABA), Córdoba and Santa Fe.

He prevailed in many of those who will renew senators: Córdoba and Mendoza, who were fixed. Santa Fe, which was accessible. Chubut that was supposed to be disputed. And La Pampa in which the FdT was favorite. If that picture were to be maintained in November, the ruling party would lose its own quorum in Senators, a hypothesis that was not deemed impossible days ago but very unlikely.

Tucumán and Catamarca confirmed the traditional Peronist primacy, they remained as an exception among those who renew senators and within the general panorama.

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Together for Change (JpC) was the winning coalition by around five points in the national total. Exact percentages are not recorded in this note because at its closing they had not scrutinized tables. Tomorrow they will be cleared.

Among its interns, the Head of Government of Buenos Aires Horacio Rodríguez Larreta was consolidated. He had displaced former President Mauricio Macri from the list building. He managed to get his candidates María Eugenia Vidal and Diego Santilli to beat their internal rivals in CABA and Buenos Aires. Their moves went well. Santilli easily beat Victoria Tolosa Paz. His success was the biggest hit on an amazing day.

Vidal, added to Ricardo López Murphy, remained close to the fifty percent that almost always scratches their strength in CABA. It will be necessary to see if Javier Milei manages to fight him votes “for the right” in the nationals. Without getting into the mud of premature forecasts, let us hint: historical precedents indicate that winning encourages adherence, that victory magnetizes. In the coming months, the main opposition coalition can boast of being the standard-bearer for the “useful anti-K vote”.

Nobody wins on the eve. Eating lunch can be indigestible. Two years from now it is almost ridiculous to make omens in Argentina. What happened between the exchange-rate victory in 2017 and the presidential victories won by Alberto Fernández in 2019 is fresh and instructive. With these exceptions raised, it should be noted that JxC was in pole position to make a good choice in November, keep or expand its seats in Deputies, improve its endowment in the Senate. And that Rodríguez Larreta advanced two boxes in his ambition to be presidential in 2023.

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In the internal FdT, the candidates of Santa Fe governor Omar Perotti surpassed the list headed by former minister Agustín Rossi and vice-governor Alejandra Rodenas. Perotti was allied with the Casa Rosada, his candidates will have to overcome a hard slope if they want to reverse the success of the change in the province.

In Tucumán, the lists commanded by Governor Juan Manzur beat those of Lieutenant Governor Osvaldo Jaldo. Reason to cheer the provincial Peronism; He got around half the votes and got a good distance from the changelings. Reason to think and adjust the next campaign: Jaldo ran for deputy, by the D’Hondt system he was second on the list for November. The internal tension will be a challenge to solve.

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The PRO, as already stated, beat the Radical Civic Union (UCR) in the most important primaries that faced them: CABA and Buenos Aires. The radical Mario Negri fell to Luis Juez in Córdoba. Apart from good figures in the provinces he governs (Mendoza, Jujuy and Corrientes) the white berets were second again against Larreta’s clean and jerk. They can celebrate for the coalition, yesterday their prospects of leading it were reduced.

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The Workers’ Left Front (FIT Unit) performed well in CABA and Buenos Aires. If he made them a bit thicker in November, with some wind in his favor, he could get a seat of deputies for the City and up to two for the province. It got a shocking result in Jujuy; more than 23 percent of the vote. If it is sustained, it could give it a seat of deputies for that province, in which it has been consolidating. It is the third national force, at a marked distance from the dominant ones, but it seems to have made a little place in the midst of polarization.

Milei reaped more than she surely expected, a striking percentage in CABA that often anoints figures … and sometimes forgets them. Either way, the success of such an unbridled right wing is a bitter pill and a relative risk to the system..

Other third forces faltered. There are two examples of the same phenomenon, quite dissimilar. Former minister Florencio Randazzo was fifth in Buenos Aires. The Cordobesismo of the governor Juan Schiaretti continued very far from JxC.

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The ruling party and the opposition coalition chose identical tactics: polarize. In principle, if both contestants opt for the same thing, at least one is wrong. Until now, the government was wrong who obsessively focused on Macri. His main opposition was fortified, remade in the almost incredible span of just two years after having devastated the country. Many ordinary people embarked on the option.

Alberto Fernández, around midnight, acted as a defeated political leader should do. He took the lead, showed his face, acknowledged that the result reveals errors, that something must be corrected, that the voice of the common people has to be heard. He cared for his candidates whom he saved the pain of exposing himself. They are tremendous moments in politics, the president put them on his shoulder. It is not enough to reverse the result but it was the right thing to do.

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Elections, as a rule, are won or lost by governments. Officials count on achievements as a resource to legitimize themselves or as a sword of Damocles. Without going into the dissection of the candidates or the quality of the campaign, the magnitude of the figures transcends them. Such a widespread pronouncement puts the government cast in question, to the officials who do not work, to the presidential stumbles in recent months, to the results against inflation. The pronouncement at the polls demands rectifications, improvements, achievements, self-criticism in action. The Government must relaunch the management to improve the lives of Argentines. Perhaps, hopefully, that will help him to fare better in the general elections. In any case, it is what is required and demanded by millions of citizens who yesterday participated in peace and with respect.

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