Knowing what happened, evaluating what is being done and estimating what the immediate horizon will be is the recommended route to face the economic analysis. It is a basic three-step exercise in tackling the economic question.

Despite the existence of this general convention to carry out a rigorous reflection on the immense challenges of the Argentine economy, the powerful media and right-wing political device decides to ignore the heavy inheritance of the Macri government and, even more, to question those who point out the immense conditioning left for the present of this traumatic recent experience.

This strategy of confusion and complicity with a political alliance that, in just four years, caused a disaster of proportions is summarized in a campaign of memes circulating on social networks whose legend says “Ah … but Macri”.

It is the same as it does, no longer memes, most economists in the city when it provides analysis of the situation, with its corresponding projections, thus revealing the conceptual fragility of these analyzes.

The ability of the right to hide the economic nonsense of macrismo It facilitates that officials of that management give their opinion without taking responsibility for the social, labor and economic costs generated by the measures they applied.

What are the consequences of not talking about the economic disaster of macro-radicalism?

Not talking about the economic policy implemented and the inheritance delivered by the government of the macrismo-radicalismo coalition is the obvious tactic of the right. As is common to say, those who do not remember traumatic events and those responsible run the risk of repeating the same mistakes and endorse those who propose to do the same.

The government of Alberto Fernández he mentions the cargo received and, for that reason, receives critical observations that he does not deal with the present in this way. This boils down to the meme campaign “Ah … but Macri”.

In reality, the current management complies with the three analytical steps mentioned above and, in these weeks, offers a horizon of hope to the population because it is part of an electoral strategy, as recommended by experts in political campaign communication in times of crisis.

Carlos Menem won the 1989 and 1995 elections remembering the trauma of hyperinflation, and Mauricio Macri could not base its electoral strategy on the economic front because the government of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner it did not end with an economic crisis. Not pointing out the macroeconomic disaster to propose only a horizon of hope can weaken the strength of the message.

Ultimately, it is a decision with a view to the next elections, but in structural political terms it is essential to emphasize the devastation caused by the third neoliberal cycle in 45 years.

It is important to detail this journey for the following reason: the concealment of the balance of each of these political periods presents the risk that there is a room, what it would be ruinous for the material conditions of the majority in social, labor and productive terms.

It is no secret that diverting attention from the economic issue allowed that after Alfredo Martínez de Hoz (military dictatorship 1976-1983) came Domingo Horse (Menem and De la Rúa 1989-2001) and then disembarked Alfonso Prat-Gay, Federico Sturzenegger, Luis Caputo, Nicolás Dujovne and Guido Sandleris (Let’s change 2015-2019).

The most hilarious economic milestones of the third neoliberal cycle

The economic question, in the review of each of these political stages, has always been relegated to the background, without showing what they were. the roots of the respective crises. In this way, in the collective imagination, it seems that the crises were the exclusive consequence of bad administration and not of profoundly regressive measures that conditioned growth with social inclusion.

During the government of Raúl Alfonsín The main focus was on the violation of human rights during the bloody dictatorship, and on Nestor Kirchner The objective was to recover Argentina from the danger of the national disintegration of “Que se vayan todos.” Now, an external factor, the pandemic, is the alibi laid out to allow the cover-up.

Camouflaging the consequences of regressive economic policy is the way to exonerate those responsible and beneficiaries of the disaster, so that they or their heirs can begin a renewed cycle.

It is remarkable that those who speak of the recent past are questioned when remembering the Macrista heritage, when the representatives of conservatism do not tire of talking about the past to falsify that the extensive Argentine crisis is due to a period of 70 years of populism.

In this regard, they were not so many years and what they do not say is that precisely in the short periods of populism, in that period of seven decades, the economy expanded with improvements in the living conditions of the population, a balance opposite to that registered in governments. neoliberals.

The enumeration of some economic milestones of macrista management reveals the hilarious character of those four years:

* The default of debt in pesos.

* The most vertiginous debt in dollars in amount and time in Argentine financial history.

* The unusual credit agreed with the IMF.

* The issuance of a 100-year bond.

* The zero monetary emission policy.

* Inflation targets.

* The total deregulation of the foreign exchange market and the capital account.

* Uncontrolled commercial opening with the consequent deindustrialization

* Four-figure rates on essential public services.

Those who speak without shame despite the disaster they caused

The impunity of power allows whoever defaulted the debt in pesos, the last Minister of Economy of Macri, Hernán Lacunza, the most foolish financial event in the traumatic history of local debt, continue to think about current financial policy as if you hadn’t done anything.

The last president of the Central Bank of macrismo, Guido Sandleris, opines with an astonishing lightness questioning the solvency of the banking system when it sank the economy and the banks with the absurd policy of zero monetary issue, also confusing the needs of pesos and dollars by the National Treasury.

The duo that managed the Central Bank in those years Federico Sturzenegger and Lucas Llach talks about inflation when they are protagonists of the memorable role “2018 inflation targets: 10% (+ – 2)”. Inflation that year was 47.6 percent.

Despite this embarrassment, they defy their critics by indicating the evolution of the inflation rate this year, above official forecasts. They are also responsible for the total deregulation of the foreign exchange market, thereby facilitating a hellish financial bike and the Central Bank’s record loss of dollars.

The Prime Minister of Economy of the macrismo-radicalismo alliance, Alfonso Pray-Gay, had assured that it was not going to see price increases with the megadevaluation of December 2015 because prices were aligned with the blue. It was an expression of a capital ignorance about Argentine economic history. The inflation rate shot up precisely because of this very strong exchange rate adjustment.

In short, the objective of not talking about the macrista heritage is part of the complicit device enjoyed by the third neoliberal cycle, which has left deep wounds that will take years to heal and, for that very reason, it is essential to talk about that economic policy and the corresponding inheritance.

The impact of the pandemic

Not only is there a deliberate decision by the right to hide the Macrista heritage, but the devastating impacts of the pandemic are not part of their analysis.

They evaluate the behavior of the main economic and social variables as if the greatest global health and economic drama of at least the last hundred years did not exist.

Point out both traumatic events, one local and one external, does not mean ignoring errors in the handling of some financial and economic circumstances so far in the government of Alberto Fernández. But not contextualizing them would only reflect the political intention of fomenting confusion.

By case, the panorama of the income of the popular sectors is an example of a weak flank of the current management, beyond the political will to improve them.

The latest labor market report from the Research and Training Center of the Argentine Republic (Cifra-CTA) highlights that the income of workers lost much of its purchasing power in recent years, especially towards the end of the Cambiemos government.

In the context of the pandemic and its economic effects, the fall was not reversed, but the average labor income had a reduction of 1.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021. This variation since the first quarter of 2018 it is negative at 22.2 percent.

These numbers show that during the Macri government it was when the great blow to wages took place, and that, for now, in the Fernández government they could not be recovered.

The unequal fall in the purchasing power of wages

The report points out, at the same time, that the loss of purchasing power was extremely uneven. While for the lowest stratum of workers (the 40 percent that earn the least) it reaches 27.0 percent, for the highest stratum (the 20 percent that earn the most) it was 19.0 percent among the first quarters of 2018 and 2021.

As a result of the real loss of wages, added to the fall in the number of jobs, workers as a whole saw their participation in the added value generated reduced (income pie distribution). While this share was 49.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, it dropped to 46.1 percent in the first quarter of this year.

The Cifra-CTA researchers warn that in this scenario “the long-delayed salary recovery became an urgent issue”. Although wages began to rise slowly and unstably since the end of last year, “the acceleration of inflation in 2021 threatens to halt this incipient and limited improvement,” they indicate.

To add that it is observed in these months, and in light of the evidence of a higher level of inflation than initially expected, a firmer government policy in pursuit of improving salaries and avoiding a fourth year of decline in purchasing power.

To achieve this objective, the advancement of the increases agreed in the framework of the Minimum Wage Council, a higher guideline was validated for joint negotiations and reviews of negotiations of public wages.

“The fight between wages and inflation is resolved in the remaining months of the year, with a decisive influence also on the level of consumption and economic activity. However, it is not enough to maintain the current purchasing power but rather the goal should be to start recovering what was lost“, they conclude.

[email protected]

.