Jose Felix Tezanos He stomped in, back in the summer of 2018, when Pedro Sánchez appointed him president of the Sociological Research Center (CIS). It was the first time that someone from the Executive of the party in the Government had taken office and calmed down the criticism with a “Would it be bad for a Jew, a gypsy or a podemita to preside over the CIS?” He argued that “no one should be judged for their ideas, but for their work.” Well, three years later, his work has been scrutinized and is on the verge of being judged at one of the most critical moments of his career.
The Court of Instruction number 29 of Madrid has admitted to processing a complaint against Tezanos for an alleged crime of embezzlement of public funds. The complaint, as confirmed by judicial sources to EL ESPAÑOL, is accompanied by an expert report in which your work is statistically analyzed since he took office. The conclusion is that the electoral polls of the CIS have a mean margin of error of more than 3 points when the usual in other studies is less, of 1.5 points. In addition, Tezanos’ mistakes always, always, benefit the left, especially his party, the PSOE, something unprecedented in the institution.
The complaint, presented by Vox in its strategy of judicializing the political agenda, also accuses the president of the CIS of having paid outsourced services to third parties for prices much higher than those of the market. According to sources close to Tezanos, the president of the CIS is calm in this situation because, they say, you don’t even know exactly why you are being reported. He doubts the professionalism of the expert report and does not understand that the Penal Code typifies what could be classified as an alleged lack of rigor in his work.
However, the investigating judge has asked the CIS to present within 20 days the working minutes in which the criteria for preparing the surveys elections of 2018 and 2020, or those that justify the change of techniques applied in the methodology. They are also asked for the crime control and regulatory compliance program.
Tezanos has been for years one of those political figures who operate in the shadows but with a lot of weight within the party. In the past it was a fervent warrior and in the last stage of the PSOE he went to the side of Pedro Sanchez. He is so socialist that, although he left the Executive so as not to stir up controversies when he was appointed president of the CIS, his departure has been temporary to return to the post once he leaves the institution.
During his tenure at the head of the sociological studies center, trust in the CIS has fallen to a minimum, being constantly criticized by various experts and even former presidents of the institution. As soon as you enter, in 2018, changed the model that had been carried out until then with different questions, a new method in the estimation of the vote, wasting the historical series, stopped asking for the evaluation of the Government -with all its members suspending in the previous one- and removed the one known as “kitchen” .
The famous “kitchen” is a data treatment process that allows a more accurate vote estimate to be reached, and the CIS began to offer less reliable raw data since the biases are not corrected. For instance, he began to weigh more sympathy, something in which the PSOE usually has an advantage but that does not always translate into real votes.
Three years later, that system has done nothing but produce errors. Legal sources assure that the expert report provided with the complaint focuses on those rulings. As they explain, good surveys have a margin of error that is usually around 1.5 points. If it fails less, it is a successful survey, if it fails more it is a bad survey. Analyzed the surveys led by Tezanos, these have a mean deviation of more than 3 points.
This occurs although the CIS studies are the ones with the most resources, in which the most money is invested so that they are as accurate as possible and the only ones that are done every month, that is, the ones that handle the most prior information.
Beyond the statistical analysis, the complaint that has been admitted for processing also suspects the direction in which these errors occur. Normally, failures benefit one party or the other in much the same way. For example, in the December 2015 elections, with the CIS chaired by someone close to the PP, the predictions underestimated the PSOE, but in 2016 they overestimated it. In fact, The country it analyzed all the elections since 2000 and the CIS was wrong before Tezanos practically half to the right and half to the left.
Since Tezanos has been in command of the CIS, this has stopped happening and the left has always benefited, especially the PSOE. Let’s look at some examples. In the Andalusian elections of 2018, the first poll it led, the CIS overestimated the result of the left by 12.6 points and underestimated those of the right by 9.5. In the generals of November 2019 it inflated 6.4 points to the left and the right scored 6.1 below the final result. In the regional elections of May 2019, the error was almost identical. The only resounding success was in the general elections of April 2019 when the official poll nailed the result.
In the last regional elections in Madrid – in which Tezanos directly requested the vote for the PSOE – all the polls placed the PP and Vox ahead of the left-wing bloc. All except the CIS, which put the left two points ahead of the right. While the rest of the polls ended up having a margin of error of 1.6 points per game, that of the CIS was 3 points and PP and Vox took 12 more than what the public institution had predicted.
And the cost overruns?
Beyond the continuous errors, the complaint filed by Vox also plans the shadow of the CIS awards to subcontracted companies. This is not the first time that Tezanos has been involved in a controversy over this type of performance. Last year, taking advantage of the state of alarm decree that allowed fast-track contracting without public bidding, the institution commissioned a controversial barometer from the company Interfield in which it was asked whether freedom of information should be limited.
Intercampo was hired by hand and, beyond the questions it asked, everything was complicated when it was discovered that it is the company used by the Sistema Foundation, linked to the PSOE and chaired by Tezanos himself, who always predicted ample victories for the socialist party in its magazine, Topics, directed by the president of the CIS himself.
As you can see, everything stays at home in the case of Tezanos. Magazine Topics She is an old acquaintance of national socialism and the movements of the Fundación Sistema have served to see the ideological process of the current president of the CIS. In its beginnings, the publication served to air the postulates warriors, with own Alfonso Guerra as president of the editorial board, against the wing of Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba.
Currently, that editorial board led by Tezanos is full of names related to Pedro Sánchez, such as the former Minister of Health Maria Luisa Carcedo, the former foreign minister Josep Borrell, the former vice president Carmen Calvo, the candidate for Madrid Angel Gabilondo and the current Minister of the Presidency, Felix Bolaños, among many others from the wing sanchista of the party.
From the environment of the president of the CIS they assure this newspaper that they still do not know the specific content of the complaint that Vox has placed on them, however, they assure that when they know more details they will pronounce on it and even plan to write an article. Will be on Topics, of course.
Follow the topics that interest you