The budget war between PSOE and United We Can has already begun. The government crisis last Saturday has not touched any of the interlocutors: Maria Jesus Montero on the socialist side and Nacho Alvarez among the purples. This newspaper has learned that the number two from Ione Belarra in Social Rights you have already sent your first documents to the Minister of Finance. And she has already warned that the claims be lowered, because the spending ceiling “will be much lower” this year.
Sánchez has reinforced Montero with more political weight with the ministerial revolution – he lost the spokesperson, but added Public Function to his tasks. One of the goals is to widen the gap with United We Can. Because this second part of the legislature focuses on economic recovery, job creation … “and the preparation of the 2023 elections,” government sources explain.
In this month of July, he gave the order for the rest of the departments to send their draft Budgets for 2022 and began to to cook the public accounts in broad strokes. Because the first thing it will do is approve the spending ceiling, expectedly in the next Council of Ministers.
The head of the Treasury has been one of the pillars of the president since he arrived in Moncloa three years ago. And she was already a tough negotiator last year for Álvarez. The reader will recall that the internal agreement in the Government was delayed until October 28 at dawn, implicating the same Ivan Redondo and its purple counterpart, Juanma del Olmo. And that Montero managed to have the Budgets approved on time only because he could force the Senate not to introduce amendments.
We can vs. EU
Once he signed the order to start preparing the accounts, and as this newspaper published, United We can begin to filter his desire to “maintain social investments” and that the next year does not lower the record spending ceiling of 2021 , with an increase of 54% compared to 2020 and an added deficit of 94 billion.
“It’s not possible, one thing is the first year post-pandemic, and another what comes after, “explain sources from the Treasury.” If you start to withdraw stimuli, if there are no longer so many ERTE or extraordinary funds for the Autonomous Communities … Has no sense“.
Another thing that the socialist sources in the Government do not explain is that some of the European partners They have already warned that they do not believe that Spain will comply on time.
The recovery funds are conditioned to structural reforms, and that of pensions, for now, has remained half: only the good has been signed, that is, the revaluation with the CPI … which is precisely the bad thing for how Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands or Austria look at us. And the labor reform promises to be a toothache for the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, surrounded by Nadia Calviño and the EU… and with his leadership still not settled in United We Can.
Thus, the First Vice President and Minister of Economy has already suggested that next year, Spain has to start showing its fiscal consolidation commitments. A message to calm the waters in the European Council, but to shake them within the coalition.
The tax reform
Because the purple, at that point, put the postponed tax reform on the table. “There is going to be the real fight”, warns a spokesman for the Belarra environment. The Minister of Social Rights presented on Wednesday the guidelines of the future Family Diversity Law, which promises a universal state benefit for upbringing “that allows the families of our country to raise their sons and daughters with dignity.”
In addition to the extension, in coordinated work -of course- with the Ministry of Equality, of paternity leave from four to six months … “and all that has to be paid for”warn the sources. Nacho Álvarez has already done the accounts and, as this newspaper can confirm, he sent them this Thursday to María Jesús Montero’s office.
The minister, just as she refused to negotiate the spending ceiling with him, now shows herself closed in band to advance the tax reform. “Things in order,” they explain from the Treasury. “The commission of experts that we meet at the Ministry It has a mandate, which is to present its conclusions in February, and we will respect it.“, explained Montero in his last press conference as spokesman.
It was difficult for the president, Calviño and her to convince the European partners to allow them this margin. Because in Brussels they wanted to see the details of Component 28 of the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan, the one with the bombastic name of “Adaptation of the tax system to the reality of the 21st century”.
Being the key of all accounts (that is, the one that must balance recurring income with expenses), it is one of the most lazy waiting for the “examination of the different figures of our tax system, in order to advise the Ministry of Finance in the adoption of appropriate decisions in the reform of the tax system “.
But in Moncloa they were convinced that, before introducing distortions, you have to wait to consolidate the rebound economic, business and financial. And that is why Calviño is also firm with the Interprofessional Minimum Wage “although the employment figures continue to improve.” The first vice president even doubted that the pending rise will arrive in January 2022… when Yolanda Díaz wants her for this same August. “Let’s see and analyze,” repeats Calviño.
Sánchez has only retouched his part of the Government, and has made him more attached to his party. He has not touched the purple and that has been perceived by some of his ministers as a hook for them to bite in that alleged respect for their rhythms … and ensure the approval of the next Budgets. But it will not be so easy: “We are still in a social emergency and If there is no more income, when you have to go into debt is now“.
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