Scott Minrd reinforces forecast of more than 1,600% increase in the long term, but foresees a sharp drop for the main cryptocurrency in the world before that happens

Founder and CIO of Guggenheim Partners, an investment firm with 270 billion dollars (more than 1.3 trillion reais) under his management, Scott Minrd reaffirmed his prediction that bitcoin could reach 600 thousand dollars in the future, that he had made for the first time in February. The executive, however, does not foresee an easy path for the cryptocurrency, and cites the possibility of another sharp drop before the new highs.

“Every big bitcoin rally was followed by an 80% crash. Now that would make a lot of sense in many ways because it would take us back to the $15,000 level. The real bottom when you look at technical indicators is 10 a thousand dollars, but you know this is a little extreme – I would say 15 thousand dollars,” said Minard, in interview at CNBC.

Despite being pessimistic in the short term, Scott Minrd showed that he remains confident with the main cryptocurrency in the world in the long term. According to him, if bitcoin is actually adopted as an alternative to gold, its price could rise by more than 1,600% compared to the current $34,000.

“Our research shows that as a store of value, and that’s a moot point, but if it were comparable to gold, bitcoin would reach somewhere between $400,000 and $600,000,” he said, adding that this is still a bit off because ” sovereign funds still don’t think cryptoactives are mature enough to become an asset class.” According to him, until that happens, “the market will be very volatile, which keeps large institutional investors away”.

In November 2020, Guggenheim Partners filed with the SEC requesting the right to invest up to $500 million of one of its funds in bitcoin. Since then, however, Minrd has been making pessimistic predictions for the cryptocurrency in the near term. Last week, when bitcoin dropped below 30,000 for the first time this year, said that the bottom hadn’t yet been hit: “Watch out for further declines in crypto as bitcoin breaks support. Likely next support at $20,000.”

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