One month after leaving the Government Palace, the president Francisco Sagasti has reached its best approval figures. According to the most recent El Comercio-Ipsos survey, the president’s administration is approved by 52%. That is, it grew 22 percentage points compared to last May [ver infografía].
Political scientist Kathy Zegarra considered that even though Sagasti began her term with failures, she currently represents “stability” in the face of electoral uncertainty.
“In recent months the government has been strengthened and this is shown in the success of vaccination. And, furthermore, this administration does not show negative macroeconomic figures, or at least that have been generated by it. In some way, the president seems to be showing stability at a time of political and electoral uncertainty, ”he told this newspaper.
Zegarra also pointed out that after the second round there may be a better assessment of Sagasti, because neither Pedro Castillo (Peru Libre) nor Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular), the two candidates for the ballot, has been able to dispel the fears that exist around their matches. “There is no hope of a good government in either of the two, there is no citizen enthusiasm,” he stressed.
For the political analyst Jeffrey Radzinsky, director of the GFP, there are two factors by which the approval of the head of state has rebounded in the last month.
“We have accelerated the march with the issue of vaccination [contra el COVID-19], which was a huge demand. Soon after he entered [a Palacio] The second wave of the pandemic came, the results were brutal, that was negative. But he quickly completed the purchase of vaccines and the vaccination process has accelerated, there is a significant advance ”, he remarked.
And the other, according to Radzinsky, has been the weak political leadership of Castillo and Fujimori in the ballot.
“The contract for the proposal offered by Castillo and Fujimori with the Sagasti administration makes many people have a better regard for the latter. In this context, the public highlights Sagasti. And not a minor fact, it is possible that in a month we will have a president who leaves office without trials and criminal complaints, that would be important for our precarious democracy, “he mentioned.
Political analyst Enrique Castillo said that “the only and exclusive” reason why the approval of Sagasti has risen is thanks to the work of the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Health. “The first for having acquired the vaccines that could have been bought and that he did it despite the fact that Martín Vizcarra could not buy a single vaccine, and the other, because despite the initial setbacks, the vaccination process has been able to advance rapidly ”, He expressed.
Castillo also pointed out that the current government has had more problems from a political point of view than achievements.
“There is no first stone for a great project. And on the issue of the fight against the pandemic, what happened in Arequipa [con la variante Delta] and the possibility of a third wave ends up being a question of how prepared we are going to be to face it, “he said.
And the Congress?
On the other hand, the poll also indicates that the Congress of the Republic is disapproved by 64%. In other words, it fell by eight percentage points compared to May. It is only approved by 24%.
Castillo considered that, if the approval of this Parliament is compared with the previous ones, it ends with a “high average”, because generally the Congresses close their managements with 10%.
“Ending the 24% and going back in disapproval is something surprising, and it has to do with a series of laws that this Congress has passed, [de corte] populist, such as the partial withdrawal of funds from the AFPs ”, he added.
Radzinsky agreed on this point with Castillo, in the sense that a Congress with only 15 months of mandate ends with 24% “is not that low.”
Zegarra, on the other hand, pointed out that in the Parliament in recent weeks the wrongdoing of certain congressmen who seek to censor the Board of Directors has been registered.
The Constitution in debate
39% believe that the Constitution should be partially reformed by the new Congress, as established by the current Magna Carta, while 32% believe that a total change should take place through a constituent assembly, as proposed by Pedro Castillo, candidate of Peru Libre, during the electoral campaign.
According to the latest El Comercio-Ipsos survey, 22% consider that the Constitution should remain unchanged, and 7% do not specify.
For the political scientist Kathy Zegarra, the “large number” who consider that the Magna Carta should be partially changed is important, although she specified that in general the constitutional reforms do not “immediately” reflect a situation of change for citizens. “It is an immaterial change, it is not the construction of a hospital or the launch of a social program,” he added.
He also argued that the figures reflect that the majority of Peruvians “feel that something must change” in the political system and in the structure of the State.
Zegarra indicated that an eventual Castillo administration must address the reform of the Constitution from the “path of legality” and determine which points should be changed. “An effort has to be made to gather the opinion of the citizens and look for what are the most urgent changes, one cannot speak in general terms as ‘the people want this or another’, without really knowing what is needed”, stressed.
Political analyst Jeffrey Radzinsky, director of the GFP, indicated that with the recent El Comercio-Ipsos survey it is clear that there is a majority of citizens who recognize that changes must be made to the current Magna Carta. “Within this majority, there is a minority group that supports the idea of a constituent assembly, which must be taken into consideration.”
Radzinsky pointed out that, although the constituent assembly was one of Castillo’s flags during the campaign, this measure does not appear specifically among the main reasons for those who supported him. “The need for change is related to political and social elements. The demand [de cambio] it goes more with concrete and tangible issues ”, he remarked.
One third support constituent
Political analyst Enrique Castillo has another reading of the El Comercio-Ipsos opinion study, in the sense that only a third of the country supports a constituent assembly. “[En la práctica] is the sum of the votes of Castillo, Verónika Mendoza and other leftist groups [en la primera vuelta]This is not surprising, ”he said.
Castillo indicated that he sees citizens who want a partial reform of the Magna Carta closer to those who are in favor of keeping it as it is.
“There are people who feel that this Constitution has allowed growth. And those who ask for a partial reform through Parliament, I think they refer to political reforms that, for example, allow solving the issue of vacancy, bicamerality, whether or not it is convenient to re-elect mayors and governors and other political reforms ” , he stated.
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