The price of gasoline continues to rise week by week. This Thursday it reached levels that had not been recorded for almost seven years, in October 2014. According to data released by the European Union Oil Bulletin, gasoline is sold in Spain at an average of 1.37 euros per liter, while that diesel does it at 1.23 euros, levels of the beginning of 2020.
At the doors of the weekend, gasoline rose almost 0.7% and diesel by 0.8% compared to last week. With current prices, filling an average 55-liter tank with gasoline costs almost 75.2 euros, while if it is diesel fuel, the price is 67.7 euros.
This new record does not catch consumers unprepared, who have been observing since November how the price of fuel rises unstoppably. In the past seven months, the rally of fuels, gasoline has risen by 19% and diesel by 21%, dragged down by the rise in oil. A barrel of Brent oil, a benchmark in Europe, has almost doubled in price since November, going from 40 dollars a barrel to the 73 that it marked this Thursday.
The question now is whether prices have reached the top or there is still room for a rise. Antonio Hernández, EY partner of regulated sectors, believes that the future will be marked by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which until now has limited crude production to raise the price of a barrel at the same time as global demand grows of oil due to the reactivation of the economy. “This price increase could soften if there is a gradual increase in the supply by OPEC + and an increase in the supply of shale oil [el obtenido del fracking, sacudiendo la tierra] by American producers encouraged by the rise in prices ”.
From the consulting firm KPMG, Antonio Martín, energy partner, delves into this relationship of supply and demand, which he believes will not balance until 2022. “In that year, demand should rise another 3 million barrels a day and production should do so in about 5 million, until recovering the pre-pandemic level. Until then we must prepare for a year of high gasoline prices. “
In the same vein, the economist Jeroen Blokland, a former Robeco analyst, points out, who does not rule out even more pronounced increases in the short term: “Will we see the price of oil cross the threshold of 100 dollars in the short term? Much depends on the offer. Demand is strong and with the fiscal stimulus mainly focused on the real economy, it is likely to continue to be so in the future. “
Climate targets may make oil more expensive
The climate war is the second front that drives up fuel prices. The main economies of the planet (the equivalent of 70% of global GDP) net zero greenhouse gas emissions have been set as a goal and multinationals and investment funds are already diverting their capital on the same path.
Some experts warn that as investments shift to clean energy, the supply of oil may suffer, pushing prices higher. This is how ING analysts express it in a note entitled Oil remains firm: “A concern for the oil market is the lack of investment that we are seeing and the implications that this will have in several years.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) collected in its May report that to achieve the goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 it is essential not to invest in fossil fuels. “No new oil and natural gas fields are needed on the net zero emissions path, and supplies are increasingly concentrated to a small number of low-cost producers,” the IEA said.
Despite the strong increases in fuel, both fuels are still far from their historical highs that reached the week of September 3, 2012, when gasoline cost 1.52 euros and diesel 1.46.