In the past, the PDS, then for a few years the Left, was considered the party of the East Germans. Meanwhile the AfD Took this place. The trend from all East German federal states is clear: Not only in Saxony-Anhalt is the AfD long since it became a people’s party, although it is under surveillance by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
A new survey from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania shows that there is a clear trend in all of Eastern Germany, what the AfD concerns. It could have worrying effects on the general election.
AfD in Saxony-Anhalt: Almost fourth elects the radical right in the state elections
Five years ago, in the state elections in 2016, the AfD got 24.3 percent from the state in Saxony-Anhalt. While the Left (-7.4%) and the SPD (-10.9%) downright fell, the AfD became the second strongest force.
An INSA poll before the state elections in 2021 saw the AfD now even in front of the CDU, other forecasts from Saxony-Anhalt attested a similarly high value as in 2021. Unlike the recent state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg, where the AfD lost around a third of the votes, it is stable in Saxony-Anhalt and will again represent a large parliamentary group in the state parliament.
>>> Survey for the state election of Saxony-Anhalt: shock prognoses shortly before the election!
AfD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Party moves on the SPD
Now a new survey from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is causing a sensation. According to Wahlkreisprognose.de, the AfD could now also become the strongest force in this state. Although it is still at the level of the state elections of 2016, when the AfD became the second strongest party with 20.8%, the Social Democrats under Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig are threatened with a violent crash. According to the new forecast, there are only 0.5 percentage points between the two parties: The SPD comes to 21.5%, the AfD to 21%. All other parties are weaker. In autumn, at the same time as the federal election, a new state parliament will be determined in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Thuringia: Höckes AfD makes governing (almost) impossible
Similar picture in Thuringia, where a state election is also planned for September 26th. According to the latest polls from the spring by INSA and Infratest dimap (ARD), the AfD and its figurehead Björn Höcke could hold 23 percent of their 2019 election results. This could make the formation of a government much more difficult again, since the CDU excludes cooperation with the left, but Bodo Ramelow has made Thuringia the last big left bastion. The parties are in a bind!
AfD stronghold of Saxony: surveys see it in front
In the 2017 federal election, the AfD was the strongest party in Saxony with the second vote. This position actually seems to stabilize the party. Two new surveys from April and May by the institutes INSA and Civey see the alternative for Germany in the top position with 26% and 29.6% respectively, just ahead of the CDU. However, the next state election is not expected to take place until 2024.
The last election in Brandenburg was in 2019, where it was enough for the AfD to make second place with 23.5%. A Kenya coalition of the SPD, CDU and Greens had to be formed in order to secure a majority in the state parliament.
Forsa survey for East Germany: AfD just behind CDU
Even before the general election, it is clear that the AfD can count on a lot of approval in the East. At the beginning of June, the Forsa Institute published a poll on the federal election, according to which 21 percent of those questioned in East Germany would vote for the AfD. The CDU only came to 23 percent. The Left (13 percent) as well as the SPD and the Greens (12 percent each) are beaten.
In West Germany, on the other hand, i.e. the old federal states, the AfD only comes to seven percent. A clear discrepancy in the values!
AfD in East Germany: SPD, CDU, Greens and FDP in trouble
The AfD is thus firmly rooted in the whole of the East and has been able to professionalise itself in recent years through large parliamentary groups with associated speakers and financial resources.
In addition, the AfD brings other parties into a mess. The CDU in particular is in a dilemma because it categorically excludes coalitions or any cooperation with the Left Party.
Thus, as is currently the case in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg and Thuringia, the parties are forced to form three-party alliances. While there are Kenya coalitions of CDU, SPD and Greens in the other three federal states, Red-Red-Green in Thuringia does not even have a parliamentary majority.
Before the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, there was even speculation as to whether a Zimbabwe coalition of CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP would have to be necessary to ensure a parliamentary majority. A German coalition made up of the CDU, SPD and FDP was also under discussion.
The FDP and CDU burned their fingers in 2019 when they elected FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich as short-term Prime Minister of Thuringia with votes from the AfD. The outcry in the republic was so enormous that Kemmerich resigned immediately. Nevertheless, there was no real way out of the dilemma in Thuringia even after that
The procedural nature of the situation, in turn, plays into the cards of the AfD, which at every opportunity presents itself with populist slogans about the so-called “old parties” and their alleged inability to lead citizens-oriented politics in the interests of Germany.
Eastern Commissioner of the Federal Government on AfD: “Even after 30 years not arrived in democracy”
From the point of view of the Federal Government’s Eastern Commissioner, CDU politician Marco Wanderwitz, one has to get used to the fact that people in the East vote differently. In a podcast of the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” he stated with resignation: “Those affected do not want to hear that, but nevertheless I am one who emphasizes again and again that in the new federal states the tendency to vote for a right-wing extremist party is obviously unfortunately is more pronounced than in the old federal states. “
From the point of view of Saxony, the AfD voters in the east “cannot be won back by governments through good work”. Only a small number of them are “potentially retrievable”. Wanderwitz continues: “We are dealing with people who are partially socialized by dictatorship in such a way that they have not reached democracy even after 30 years. That is sad, but unfortunately true. “
The assessment of the government’s Eastern Commissioner caused a great stir. If his assessment is correct, one would have to accept in the longer term that every fifth or even every fourth voter from Saxony to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania continues to tick the AfD.