The pre-electoral survey carried out by the Sociological Research Center in the last days of the campaign for the Madrid elections on May 4 did not capture, nor did the flash poll, neither the ‘Ayuso phenomenon’ nor the ‘sorpasso’ of Más Madrid to the PSOE. In addition, it placed the two blocks in a technical tie, since the sum of PP, Ciudadanos and Vox and that of PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos obtained a 34.3% intention to vote.

This survey is the first in which the CIS has changed the methodology, since it was carried out in the last days of the campaign. From the institution they argued that it is increasingly difficult, due to the fall of bipartisanship and the rise of new formations, to predict electoral behavior: people “increasingly decide later” and there are “20% undecided” a few days before the appointment with the polls. This is how they justified this survey to be carried out for the Madrid elections, but not for the Basque and Galician elections of 2020, the Catalan elections of February 14 or in the last two general elections (28-A and 10-N) of 2019.

It is true that in all of them the CIS published a post-reader polll, but he did it days after the results were known. In the case of 4-M, the fieldwork was carried out in the five days prior to the vote, in which, by law, no other polls can be known. This raised the suspicions of the opposition, who raised their voices and expressed their suspicions that Tezanos was leaking those polls to the PSOE.

The PP even denounced him before the Electoral Board for having the poll “a clear electoral tint” with the “clear risk” that the information collected ends up in the hands of the Executive. They could be “using public media for the benefit of a party to guide its electoral strategy,” they pointed out. In the letter, the popular ones claimed to know all the data immediately and denounced that the CIS had “breached” the “obligation to notify the completion” of the poll, a requirement that the LOREG does not contemplate but that develops an instruction from the Central Electoral Board. .


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