The “barometric swamp” in which the Peninsula is installed this week will give rise to a dry, stable and rainless weather in the whole country, with temperatures that will rise day by day until reaching summer values, of up to 30 degrees Celsius at some points, until Saturday, when the arrival of a storm is expected, as reported by the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).
The AEMET spokesperson, Rubén del Campo, explained that barometric swamp is the term used to indicate that atmospheric pressure is very similar in most of the territory and that this will happen during this week.
However, between Thursday and Friday a storm will form in Atlantic waters, whose deepening will probably take place very quickly, so we can speak of explosive cyclogenesis, something that will happen anyway far from the Iberian Peninsula.
This storm will move towards Ireland during the weekend, so that its effects will be noticed on the Peninsula first on Saturday, since it will send south winds that Temperatures will rise in the northern half and on the shores of the Cantabrian Sea, where that day will exceed 30ºC and will therefore increase the risk of forest fires.
Later it will be noticed on Sunday, since a front associated with this storm will cause a “marked change of weather”, so that there will be rains in large areas and the thermometers will drop significantly.
Del Campo points out that “at the moment it is too early to know if the storm will have a name”, since it is necessary to know if the orange warnings will be activated by very strong winds in large areas. However, he considers that at present “it is unlikely.”
Specifically, it informs that until Friday, slightly cloudy skies or with some intervals of clouds will predominate in most of Spain, where “little active” frontal systems will pass in the extreme north. There will be, according to the spokesman, clouds and some rainfall that will be weak and scattered and that will fall especially in Galicia, points of the Cantabrian communities and surroundings of the Pyrenees. In addition, it foresees that in the Catalan Pyrenees, the Friday there is a somewhat more intense shower.
As for temperatures, he predicts that this Wednesday they will fall in the northern third but in general they will continue to rise, especially in the east of the Peninsula. Wednesday expects 30ºC will be exceeded in the Guadalquivir valley, as on Thursday, a day in which 30ºC will also be exceeded in the Ebro valley.
Looking ahead to Friday, “the heat will rebound” and it is expected that it will exceed 30ºC in the Guadalquivir and Guadiana valleys, in parts of the interior of the Valencian Community and interior of the Region of Murcia. 32ºC could be reached or exceeded in points in the provinces of Seville, Alicante and Murcia.
Regarding Saturday, Del Campo foresees that the skies will continue to be slightly cloudy in almost all of Spain, but in the afternoon there could be a storm in the surroundings of the Pyrenees and, at the last hours, it will begin to rain in western Galicia. “The highlight” of this day will be the thermal rise in temperatures in the northern third, which can even be extraordinary (more than 10ºC) in the interior of the Basque Country, where it will exceed 30ºC.
At 32ºC they will arrive in the Ebro, Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys and, in general, in the rest of the Peninsula it will exceed 25ºC. The “abrupt” change in the weather will arrive on Sunday, when a fairly active cold front associated with the deep Atlantic storm and whose center will be located that day near the west coast of Ireland will lead to widespread rains and showers in the western half.
The Showers can be strong, persistent and be accompanied by storms in Galicia, extreme western Castilla y León and northern Extremadura. Rainfall will spread eastward throughout the day and could also be strong and accompanied by a storm in the mountainous environments of the Pyrenees and the Iberian System. On the contrary, the least probable are expected on the Mediterranean coast and in the Ebro valley.
That day will be recorded a notable general drop, especially in the western half and in some areas of Castilla y León and Extremadura, the drop will be extraordinary, of more than 10ºC compared to the previous day.
On Monday of next week the unstable environment will continue, with rains and stormy showers that again can affect a large part of the Peninsula, although less likely to the southeast. That day some showers may fall on the Balearic Islands, although the most intense are expected in the north of Aragon and Catalonia, as well as in other parts of the northern third and surroundings of the Central and Iberian systems.
Temperatures will continue to drop on Monday, especially in the center and in the eastern interior of the Peninsula, where the drop will be notable, although temperatures may still rise a little more on the shores of the Mediterranean. In fact, Del Campo specifies that In cities such as Madrid, Salamanca or Zamora, among others, on Monday there may be up to 15ºC less temperature than on Saturday.
Definitely, it will go from a Saturday, May 8, “with temperatures more typical in general at the beginning of summer” to a Monday with values ”more typical and typical of the end of winter”.
The unstable environment will still continue on Tuesday, especially in the extreme north of the peninsula, where rainfall could still be intense, especially in the Pyrenees and the temperatures will “not change too much” as a “generally cool” environment is expected until Wednesday, when the weather is likely to stabilize again with less rain and increasingly higher temperatures.
Finally, he has predicted that in the Canary Islands during all these days they will have a regime of trade winds, which will give rise to the usual weather in the archipelago.