The overwhelming triumph of Isabel Díaz Ayuso in the Madrid elections has inspired encouragement to the national leadership of the PP, which this Wednesday intensified its offensive against the central government and challenged President Pedro Sánchez to convene a debate on the state of the nation, which has not been held since 2015. Less than 24 hours after Ayuso gave the popular a resounding victory in the Community, leaving a PSOE out of the game surpassed For More Madrid and causing the abandonment of Pablo Iglesias’ policy, Pablo Casado celebrated the reunification of the “center and the right” and anticipated that the Madrid “wave” will become a state “tide”. Sánchez, for his part, moves away the idea of an electoral advance and sets the goal of recovering the political pulse, while socialist voices demand changes in the Government.
In his speech before the National Executive Committee of the PP, Casado celebrated Ayuso’s results and charged hard against the Prime Minister. The opposition leader accused him of “inaction” in the face of the health and economic crisis, of making an “immoral” use of institutions, of dealing only with “half of Spain”, and of not proposing effective solutions to urgent problems such as inequality. , the impoverishment of the middle class, an “unacceptable” youth unemployment. “It is necessary to start a high intensity reformism now. Spain must regain its course with the PP at the helm”, stressed Casado, for whom the 4-M has supposed a “motion of no confidence in all rule” to the “lies, incompetence and arrogance of Sánchez”, to his “personalism” and to his government partners.
Faced with this model, the PP president promised an economic shock plan “with cuts in taxes and bureaucracy”, the creation of an “independent authority” to manage European recovery funds, activate a “plan B to the State of alarm “to give legal coverage to the measures that are necessary to control this phase of the pandemic, and strengthen institutions, the separation of powers and judicial independence. “Change is possible and it is also urgent,” insisted Casado Taking advantage of the pull that gives the PP the great result of Isabel Díaz Ayuso.
Don’t advance elections and regain your pulse
This change, however, is not in the short term, because La Moncloa has removed the possibility of an electoral advance, according to the sources consulted by 20minutos. The triumph of the right in the Community of Madrid and the debacle of Gabilondo’s socialist candidacy advise, in the opinion of the president’s team, not to advance an electoral call that, beyond possible strategic calculations, is not necessary for Sánchez either: their support in Congress they remain intact, has budgets approved a few months ago, and Spain is waiting for the arrival of European funds.
What socialist sources do agree on is the need for the Executive to regain the initiative and adopt a more political profile to deal with the foreseeable rise of the right. Some ministers, who have a marked technical profile and do not have a party card, are criticized by sectors of the PSOE. They consider, in the first place, that they are going to face a real offensive by the PP in the coming months and that figures capable of entering the melee are needed to defend their management and combat the discourse of Casado and Vox. And, secondly, they criticize blunders like reopening the debate on taxes – in this case, on account of the possible elimination of the bonus for joint taxation in personal income tax – on the Saturday before the Madrid elections.
Therefore, the option of holding short-term elections is seen as the least recommendable scenario for Sánchez’s interests. The Government has many of its hopes pinned on the acceleration of the vaccination process to leave behind the health crisis and the arrival of European recovery funds to boost economic recovery and employment. This same Wednesday, the Executive released the details of the investments and reforms agreed with Brussels, and Vice President Calviño was confident that the resources will begin to arrive before the end of the year.
Having ruled out the option of an imminent call, there are several elements that will influence the equation of the date of the next generals. First, the progress of the health and economic recovery. If the government is able to meet its good forecasts, it is likely that he will be inclined to stretch the legislature to allow time for the improvement to be perceived by the citizens, but if dark clouds appear on the horizon, you might prefer to advance the call. The same happens with the cuts that Brussels could demand in the medium term, which could lead Sánchez to try to revalidate his command at the polls before adopting unpopular measures.
In addition, La Moncloa and the PSOE also closely monitor two dates: the first, a possible electoral advance in Andalusia, where the PP leads all the polls and that would force the Socialists to resolve against the clock the debate on the continuity of Susana Díaz as a candidate. And the second, the Spanish presidency of the European Council (July-December 2023), since the unwritten rule in this case is that state elections are not called during that shift. With the calendar in hand, Sánchez could choose to call earlier or stretch the times to the maximum, which would allow him to take advantage of the international projection of the position to go to the polls immediately afterwards.
Married boasts the primacy of the PP on the right
Be that as it may, what seems unlikely is that the confrontation between the government and the opposition will moderate. Married assured this Wednesday that the 4-M shows that the PP is “the only option to be able to be an alternative” and he boasted of the rise that, in his opinion, his party has experienced: “Two and a half years ago we celebrated our Congress being the third force in all the polls, today we are the first force,” said the opposition leader, who boasted of to make recovered “all the vote of Citizens” and to have opened “a waterway in the PSOE”.
Casado insisted that the PP has managed to “widen” its electoral space towards the center and “unite” the center and the right, in front of a left “fragmented in three parts” and a PSOE surpassed for More Madrid in the Community, for the BNG in Galicia and for Bildu in the Basque Country, something “painful” for the socialists that “perhaps is the result of their unspeakable alliances,” said the popular leader.
From now on, he predicted, “something similar to what happened in 1995 with the victory of Alberto Ruiz Gallardón or in 2011 with the victory of Esperanza Aguirre” will happen, that is, that the triumph of the PP of Madrid will translate into a victory in the following generals: “Sánchez fired the motions of Murcia and Castilla y León, and they have turned against him like a boomerang. He forced the elections, presented them as plebiscites and got sick and kicked. Like Iglesias, he has signed his political epitaph (…). There is a great social majority that wants to change the Government. The present of Spain passes once again through the PP, “he concluded.