In the end, after blowing up the campaign in the debate of the SER, Monastery and Churches (so much mounts so much, because extremes touch), they have achieved together what they wanted with their work: to polarize the debate even more with their Manichean negativism , reducing it to a mutually exclusive antagonistic plebiscite between antifascism and anticommunism that expels equanimous and moderates out of the agora. Thus the framing of the board between black and white to which I referred 15 days ago has ended up imposing itself (Of boards and stages, 04-20-21), leaving out of play the diverse range of grays.
By then, the distribution of roles was more balanced, as it gave greater prominence to the center-left candidate, the socialist Ángel Gabilondo, to the detriment of the radical extremes to the left and right. But after the blowout, after Gabilondo was forced to join the antifascist camp, his options began to decline, with Podemos and Vox rising with the leadership of the Schmittian combat between friend and enemy, which allowed them to monopolize the spotlight of media prominence as comparsas. scored by Díaz Ayuso.
This is how the iyengar law, which predicts a reduction in the moderate vote and an increase in the radical vote as a result of polarizing negativism. As the extremist battle rages on, even the most skeptical of each radical side launch to vote while the non-aligned demobilize, opting to stay at home or go to the rival, with which the distribution of the vote stops forming a “U” bell. inverted to approach the “V” of the bipolar valley. It is what seems to happen this Tuesday, judging by the consensus of the polls.
If the forecasts are fulfilled, the two radical extremes, Vox and Podemos, which risked falling below the 5% threshold, will increase their chance for an increase in the participation of its bases. The two not-so-extreme wings, PP and Más Madrid, will grow more as they become radicalized, since their losses towards both poles will be offset by loans from the center. And the most focused positions, Ciudadanos and PSOE, will see their expectations sink due to the flight of their bases towards abstention and towards taking a party to vote for the right (PP) or left (MM). With which, judging by the polls, Iglesias will achieve his desired for the first time sorpasso of the socialists, since the sum of votes and seats of the progeny of Podemos, MM + UP, will overwhelm Gabilondo.
And it is not known which effect is more dramatic and devastating, if the practical disappearance of Cs, a formerly respectable party when it was founded by unionist Catalan intellectuals of a socioliberal court, or the collapse of the expectations of the PSOE after the role that it has had to play. to Gabilondo, a full professor of metaphysics serving as an antifascist tribune. I leave for later to debate why the PSOE falls, when the magnitude of its fall is already known, if it happens in the end. Well, this Tuesday it only remains to wish him good luck, as the main depository of the Spanish civic tradition, which still exists.