A few hours after the polling stations open in the Madrid’s community, the candidacies of the left cling to a high turnout to be able to add and prevent Isabel Díaz Ayuso from occupying the office of the building of the Royal Post Office, headquarters of the regional government.

Campaigns More Madrid Y United we can They have been headed in that direction. The directors of the candidacies know that if the polls are filled with votes, they will be closer to unseating the PP, which has been governing in the region since 2003.

All the polls give Ayuso the winner. The question is whether he will get an absolute majority, if he will have to have the support of Vox or, luckily of fate, the three forces of lefts manage to add.

The electoral data of the previous elections in the Community explain the need that the PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos have to encourage mobilization in the vote. And that’s why they have focused on it in recent days.

“The boss always votes,” said the national leader of Más Madrid, Íñigo Errejón. “Let the majority speak” has been the motto of those of Pablo Iglesias. They have also emphasized that residents of wealthy neighborhoods “always” go to the polls, relating their votes to the right, and that abstention increases in poor neighborhoods.

Previous results

In 2007, 3,001,200 people voted, 67.3% of the total. The PP then swept away 53.29% of the votes. Those were the golden years of the conservatives with Esperanza Aguirre ruling the Community without any opposition.

Four years later, 65.8% (3,044,349) voted, and the popular ones reaped 51.73%. In 2015 more of the same: 65.6% went to the polls and Cristina Cifuentes placeholder image got 33.45% of the ballots.

Díaz Ayuso, who appeared in 2019, took the 22,23% of voters, and only 64.2% voted. Those elections, the last ones held, were won by the PSOE but did not get enough votes to attack Ángel Gabilondo as president.

The data shows it clearly: with an abstention above 30%, the left has no chance of winning this May 4. The mobilization will be fundamental to draw the majorities of the two blocks in the regional Assembly.

CIS survey

The latest CIS poll yielded relevant data in this regard for the upcoming Madrid elections: that there would still be almost 30% undecided when there were 12 days left until the polls open. Thus, 19.6% of those interviewed by the Tezanos institute affirm that they still do not know what the color of their ballot will be, while another 11% do not answer.

In addition, everything points to a record turnout on May 4: abstention stands at only 3.2%, while 80.2% of those interviewed already advance that they will go to vote “with all certainty” .

A total of 5,112,658 people are called to vote in the regional elections of Madrid on May 4, elections that live this Monday their day of reflection and that are unique, as they are the first to be held in advance in the region, fall on a weekday and also take place in the middle of the pandemic.

Of these 5,112,658 people, according to INE data, 4,783,528 reside in the Community of Madrid and are those who could vote in person in the region, although more than 211,000 citizens have sent their vote by mail, a figure that represents an increase in the 47% compared to the 2019 regional and municipal elections.

With their vote, the voters will elect 136 deputies (four more than until now due to the increase in population in the region), which will make the Madrid Assembly the regional parliament with the largest number of representatives.

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