On the last day to publish polls before the May 4 elections, the one carried out by SocioMétrica for EL ESPAÑOL draws a scenario in which Isabel Diaz Ayuso sweeps, but it will depend on the votes of Vox to govern and carry out their proposals. That, unless Citizens achieve representation in the Assembly.

The Popular Party It has experienced exponential growth since Ayuso called the elections. Today I would harvest between 58 and 61 seats, which could mean up to a dozen more than SocioMétrica predicted on March 16, when we began to publish trackings weekly.

This result would allow the popular to revalidate the presidency, but they would need the support of Vox (Come in 13 and 15 seats). With Ciudadanos out of the Madrid Assembly, the PP would face a left-wing bloc that would tie it in strength, since PSOE, More Madrid and We Can would also add 61 deputies.

In other words, Ayuso would be left in the hands of Rocío Monasterio to approve their proposals. Everything would change if Citizens, which is still hanging by a thread, will reach the 5% which gives the right to obtain representation.

Liberals are, according to this latest poll, in the 4,5%. But you have to take into account three factors: that there are still four days of campaign left, the final sprint; that the figure of its head of the list, Edmundo Bal, has been revalued since the debate between candidates; and that the margin of error of the tracking is 2%, which implies that Cs could harvest from 2.5% in the worst case, to 6.5%, in the opposite case.

The representation of the liberal party oscillates, therefore, between 0 and 8 deputies. Depending on whether the result is one or the other, there are two possible scenarios. And very different.

First stage

If Ciudadanos finally manages to enter the Assembly, it would be constituted as follows (in order of representation): PP (58), PSOE (26), Más Madrid (22), Vox (14), Podemos (9) and Ciudadanos ( 7).

If this is the resulting scenario, Isabel Díaz Ayuso would achieve a comfortable majority for the investiture with Ciudadanos and Vox, by adding between the three forces 79 seats. The left would be diminished in representation and would only get 57 deputies.

Second scenario

If the liberals finally do not achieve representation, the result would be the following: PP, 61 seats (three more than in the previous case); PSOE, 28 (two more); More Madrid, 24 (also two more); Vox, 14 (its representation would not vary); and United We Can, 8 (would lose a seat).

It is in this case that the Popular Party of Isabel Díaz Ayuso would need to govern with the permanent support of Vox. The two forces would add 75 seats, well above the 69 that mark the absolute majority.

In both situations we speak of a comfortable victory for the PP, but only a Cs entry into the Assembly would allow a containment dam for the proposals of the formation led by Rocío Monasterio.

The left

In none of the scenarios would the left have a chance to govern. In the most optimistic case, PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos would add 61 seats. Far from the 69 needed to take over the presidency.

The most affected of the left bloc is Pablo Iglesias. The United We Can candidate left the Second Vice Presidency of the Government to breathe some life into the project, but the result is far from what was expected: 9 seats.

On the other hand, the great beneficiary on the left so far this campaign is being Monica Garcia. The leader of Más Madrid would take out today between 22 and 24 deputies and, following that trend, it would stay close to overtaking to the PSOE of Ángel Gabilondo, which today ranges between 26 and 28 representatives. Considering there is almost a week left until the vote, it is still a possibility.

This shows that the leftist campaign attributing the threatening letters received by some of its leaders to an alleged “fascist threat” would not have had an electoral impact on bloc politics.

Vote transfer

The most striking thing about the transfer of vote between the different parties is how Monica Garcia (More Madrid) is the main beneficiary of the internal movements within the left. It would attract the 33,5% of the purple electorate in 2019 and 13,2% of the socialist.

In addition, García would be able to retain the 63,2% of the voters of Más Madrid in the last elections. A loyalty above that shown by those related to the PSOE (62.3%) and United We Can (56.7%).

The party led by Pablo Iglesias It is the second that loses the most voters compared to two years ago, only behind Ciudadanos. This bleeding would have Mónica García as the main beneficiary, since Gabilondo would only capitalize on 1.6% of those disenchanted with the extreme left formation.

Within the center-right, the most remarkable thing is the exodus that takes place from Ciudadanos to the PP. A constant in the surveys that this newspaper has been publishing. Thus, the 62,3% of those who voted for the Liberal Party in 2019 would emigrate today to the party led by Ayuso. A figure even higher than the 50.8% of last week.

The party led by Edmundo bal I would only be able to retain the 13,4% of their electors in the autonomic pasts. Hence, its survival in Madrid politics is at stake.

Ayuso would add, in addition to more than half of the voters of Cs, 21.7% of the Vox electorate, 7.4% of the Socialist and 4.4% of the More Madrid.

Furthermore, the loyalty of the electorate of the right is once again evident. And is that 88.3% of those who voted for the PP in 2019 will repeat their ballot, a figure that is lowered to 73.9% in the case of Vox.

Ayuso approves

Isabel Diaz Ayuso She is the only candidate who approves of the six who are running to preside over the Community of Madrid. In addition, the popular leader obtains the best average rating since EL ESPAÑOL publishes these weekly polls: a 5.5.

His immediate pursuers in terms of good consideration among Madrid are Monica Garcia, which borders on approved with a 4,9, and Edmundo Bal, who continues to improve his reputation week after week and already reaches 4.1 (when he ran as a candidate his assessment was 3.2).

They complete the ranking Angel Gabilondo (PSOE) and Rocío Monastery (Vox), with a 4 and a 3.9, respectively. In the last place, Pablo Iglesias (United We Can), which lags behind with 2.1.

Datasheet

Tracking of 500 weekly surveys with the last 1,500 calculation base, CAWI type, proportional to the CAM municipal censuses, managed through Gandia Integra (c). The sample is weighted by sex, age, employment status and educational level, and reweighting by vote recall in the regional elections in April19, and general elections in November19. As it is non-probabilistic sampling, there is no sampling error, but rather convergence of the weighting by interaction, which is 98% (Error = 2%) in the Barbwin algorithm. Sociométrica is a partner of Insights + Analytics Spain, a business branch, a Data Science association that integrates Aneimo and Aedemo.

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