The rarest Oscars of the 93 years that have been delivered are here, with three spaces (in Los Angeles, London and Paris) where only the candidates, their companions and the hosts will be, and the mythical Dolby Theater reserved for musical numbers. The maximum film ceremony will be lived on the small screen with transmission on TNT signals (with simultaneous translation or in English, depending on the channels, and the premiere of your TikTok account) and a preview that will begin with the red carpet at 19. The top favorites and their main rivals on a night marked by the restrictions of the pandemic, which also promises entertainment and excitement.

“Nomadland” is the movie a vencer

With six applications, lead the bets

It is not the one with the most nominations but, taking into account how the awards have been given in different ceremonies, “Nomadland” is the great candidate to win in two key areas: best production and best director (see “Without discrimination”), two of his six applications. In the main category, it competes with seven other films, of which two are cut as possible (although with few chances) rivals to snatch the statuette: “Mank”, which has 10 nominations (the highest amount among all the grids) and “Minari ”, Which deservedly slipped in when it seemed that its destination was the category of non-English-speaking film – officially, international film. In another squad of applicants appear the British “Beautiful revenge” and “The father”; and further back are “Judas and the black messiah”, “The sound of metal” and “The Chicago 7 trial.”

No chances

Daniel Kaluuya has been unbeatable

“Judas and the Black Messiah” was one of the biggest surprises of the year with six nominations, of which two are in the same category: supporting actor. No one doubts that Daniel Kaluuya will win, unbeatable in the other awards that have been held, and among those defeated will be his own cast partner, Lakeith Stanfield. Neither would Paul Raci (“The Sound of Metal”), Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Chicago 7 Trial”) or Leslie Odom Jr. (“A Night in Miami”) have a chance.

The female dispute

Candidates in protagonist and cast

The dispute for the statuette for best leading actress would be practically settled if the trend of consecrating Viola Davis (photo) for her work in “The mother of the blues” continues. It comes sweeping the galas despite having rivals with backgrounds such as Frances McDormand for “Nomadland” (she has already credited two previous Oscars) or newcomers such as Carey Mulligan for “Beautiful revenge” (she won the Critic’s Choice). Vanessa Kirby is also in dispute for her delicate and sensitive work in “Fragments of a Woman”; Andra Day closes the lot for “The USA against Billie Holiday” (won the Golden Globe). As a supporting actress, the bid is for South Korean Yuh-Jung Youn (she won the Actors Guild and Bafta award for her performance in “Minari”), although María Bakalova has won the Critic’s Choice with “Borat II” . Olivia Colman follows her with “El padre”, which was a number placed in the Bafta, but lost; Amanda Seyfried for “Mank” and Glenn Close, “Hillbilly: A Country Elegy” (also postulated in the Razzies). Golden Globe winner in this category, Jodie Foster (“The Mauritanian”), was not nominated for an Oscar.


The memory of Chadwick Boseman

The surprise death of Chadwick Boseman gave a special flavor to his nomination as the protagonist of “The Mother of the Blues.” In the bets it is sure winner. His main rival is Gary Oldman (“Mank”), although Anthony Hopkins grew up after the Bafta for “The father.” They are followed by Riz Ahmed (“The Sound of Metal”) and Steven Yeun (“Minari). The list of those who received the Oscar after death was started by screenwriter Sidney Howard in 1939, for “Gone with the Wind.” Also featured are actors Peter Finch (best leading role in 1977 for “Network”) and Heath Ledger (supporting actor in 2008’s “Batman: The Dark Knight” for his Joker); producer Sam Zimbalist for “Ben-Hur,” from 1959; composers Howard Ashman for “Beauty and the Beast” in 1991, and Gil Fries in 2013 for the documentary “20 Feet from Stardom”; and Walt Disney in 1969, two years after his death, for the short “Winnie the Pooh.”

Without discrimination

Women, debutantes and of oriental origin

So many times the American Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences was called out for openness and racial and gender diversity that this year they seem to want to silence all the claims at once. The category of best direction is marked by the presence, for the first time in history, of two female candidates: the Chinese-American Chloé Zhao for “Nomadland”, who has been accumulating prizes in the galas prior to tonight (she triumphed in the Golden Globes, the Critic’s Choice, the Baftas and the Directors Guild) and the British Emerald Fennell, debutant with “Beautiful Revenge.” So strong is the impact of their names that you have to go back in history to discover that only five women were ever nominated, and only one won this statuette: Kathryn Bigelow for “Living on the Edge”, 2008. The others were Lina Wertmüller with Pascualino Siete Bellezas ”, in 1975; Jane Campion for “The Piano Lesson” in 1993; Sofia Coppola with “Lost in Tokyo”, 2003; and Greta Gerwig for “Lady Bird”, in 2017. Old school, the only representative is David Fincher for “Mank” and with backgrounds like “Fight club”, “Seven: deadly sins”, “The curious case Benjamin Button ”and“ Social Network ”, with unsuccessful nominations in this area for the last two films. The Danish Thomas Vinterberg closes the list with “Another Round”, with which he disputes the statuette for Best International Film; and Lee Isaac Chung, director of Korean descent, who shot his acclaimed debut feature “Minari” in that language and is second on the grid this year with oriental origin. And for many, the only one who can snatch the award from Zhao.


“Another round” and its rivals

International Film one of the categories that gives more surprises year after year. This time the Danish “Another Round”, about a group of teachers who drink to increase their creativity, has an advantage over the rest due to two facts: its director Thomas Vinterberg is nominated for best director, and its protagonist Mads Mikkelsen is a well-known face in Hollywood. But the Oscar is not sure, since the Romanian “Collective” (about a journalistic investigation into a case of corruption) arrives with a double candidacy, both in this area and in best documentary (in this field, it is bidding with the Chilean “The agent mole”). The third in contention is “Quo Vadis, Aida?”, A strong Bosnian tragedy set in the war of the 1990s. From China, “Better days” was chosen, a story about bullying, and from Tunisia, “The man who sold his skin ”, on immigration.


“Soul” takes distance

It has not been the brightest of Pixar, but still “Soul” is the great candidate to win the Oscar for best animated film, as it already did in all previous awards. Tonight he could win two other statuettes, for better sound and soundtrack (in both fights with “Mank” and with “Noticias del gran mundo”). Of the other animated productions in the nomic, he could compete for the “Wolfwalkers” award, an independent Irish production that accredits weighty recognitions. A new installment of the British stop motion saga of “Shaun the sheep” must never be ruled out among the candidates; while “Beyond the Moon” is a children’s musical with a K-Pop rhythm. The list is closed by another Pixar production, “United”, about fairies and elves.


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