The campaign started with the clear awareness among the left that the Madrid elections were lost. Ayuso I started with sufficient advantage as if only a series of improbable caroms could prevent that the Government maintained, and nothing pointed in that direction. Everyone was sure of Ayuso’s victory and that with Vox he would give him to govern more than enough, and when that belief is installed in society, victory becomes inevitable. Therefore, the priority for his rivals was not to fight this or that position, or to put one proposal or another on the table, but to introduce some cracks in that feeling, so that theirs began to believe that the community could be won.
The left organized itself, in this difficult scenario, as a ‘de facto’ coalition in which each party occupied a space. The PSOE of Gabilondo searched for a profile moderate with which to get a seat from those voters of Cs disenchanted with the Ayuso + Vox option; More Madrid had to enforce their role as a real opposition during these years, also anchored in a social class that is their own; the paper of Iglesias It was to mobilize the vote of the southern populations and try to activate the vote lost by the left.
That approach did not seem to bear much fruit, and at the start of the campaign nothing seemed to be working, except More Madrid; Gabilondo was not scratching and Iglesias’s idea of fighting fascism in the working-class neighborhoods lacked any popular support.
Something began to change with the Telemadrid debate, and not because the candidates on the left were especially well. Monica Garcia quite liked to the spectators, Iglesias less and Gabilondo nothing. But an important idea was introduced, by showing that the left was together, that there was understanding, and that they had 12 days to win the elections; that all was not lost.
The attitude of the Monastery has managed to increase, among the Madrilenians not favorable to the right, the sense of urgency
Later the CIS arrived, published at a strange moment, with the ratification of the thesis that Madrid could be won by the left. Later, of course, other polls came in denying the view that the CIS had conveyed. But it’s true that some of the weather was transformingAlthough it was taken for granted that the PP was going to win, the door had also been opened to a very small possibility that it was not.
And that is too much already
And so we come to the SER debate, in which Monastery did everything it had to do to strengthen its rivals, and not only because of the words it spoke, but also because of the hostile attitude, of excessive confrontation, always excessive, that it maintained with the rest of the participants. With this way of acting, and with Ayuso absent, he has contributed to feeding, if not the feeling that the left can achieve it, yes the idea that you have to activate so that Ayuso does not rule with Vox. They put the cloak in front of him, and instead of avoiding the communicative trap, he fell right into it, also thinking that it was convenient for him. It is not a minor issue: Monastery has not given rise to the left having a moment of effervescence, but it has led to an increase in the sense of urgency among those from Madrid who are not in favor of the right. And that is too much already.
Yesterday’s debate did not break the campaign and place it in a new scenario, but it did contribute to the triumph of the left.
What happened yesterday is not going to get Ayuso voters to stop supporting him. His acceptance is well established, and barring a big mistake in his campaign or some unusual situation, not a single ballot will be left by the wayside. On the contrary, if the feeling that your victory is at risk, you will get even more votes., either of the one destined to other parties or of abstentionists mobilized before the possibility of the left winning. What can happen is that the contemptuous posture of Vox lead the undecided to abandon Vox in favor of Ayuso, and that is a risk (low, but risk) when 5% may be at stake. Monastery has been strengthened among its people, but when the staunch people like you a lot in the debates, it means that you have done something wrong.
Yesterday’s debate does not break the campaign and it places it in a new scenario, but it contributes to the possibility that the left will win begins to be on the table. And with each step that the campaign advances, the left is scraping something else. They started without any hope, now they have very little, but they have already introduced the sense of urgency. And that’s already much more than they had.
The added factor
Especially if an additional factor is considered. The fact that the Telemadrid debate was broadcast outside the community, and with success, was desired by the PSOE. They wanted it to be seen throughout Spain for a fairly obvious reason: Ayuso’s profile generates both support in Madrid and unease outside. Introduce in such a clear way the framework that the PP can only govern with Vox and, what is more, that it is turning decisively towards Vox, as shown by that tweet that the PP had to delete, and that Casado had to go out to deny , it helps a lot to create the scenario that makes it enormously difficult for the PP to return to Moncloa: what it wins in Madrid prevents it from obtaining support in much of Spain.