Electoral advance?  Andalusia looks askance at Madrid for the 4M

The biggest mistake will be to go towards an electoral advance. Right now it is not in my plans [un adelanto electoral]. We will have to be aware of the electoral results in Madrid. I have no intention of advancing the elections, except for a major cause.

All these statements are from the president of the Junta de Andaluca, and the Andalusian PP, Juanma Moreno, and have come out of his mouth in just one month. Thirty days in which his speech has subtly varied and in which he has gone from completely ruling out an early call for regional elections to not ruling it out. And that, coupled with an agenda that has intensified in recent weeks and that has included a tour of inland Andalusia, has triggered speculation.

Andaluca looks askance at the Community of Madrid and what may happen next May 4 in the elections held there. After tsunami poltico that caused the failed motion of censure in Murcia -one of whose replies was precisely the advance in Madrid-, few dare to rule out a new revolt on the board after the Madrid elections and the advance in Andalusia, which a month ago He ruled out without hesitation now it is a possibility. Remote, apparently from most political parties, but possibility after all.

It was on the 19th when the Andalusian president, in an interview on Onda Cero Radio, marked a turning point and did not completely close that door, as he had done until then. Asked by journalist Juan Ramn Lucas, Moreno admitted that what happens in the Madrid community could condition the situation in Andalusia. He even went so far as to affirm that a serious crisis in Ciudadanos could cause a serious crisis in Ciudadanos in Andalusia. And this same Friday, he insisted on that idea by asserting that a Major cause It could upset your plans to exhaust the legislature.

Among the parliamentary arch, including the governing partners of the Popular Party, the idea prevails that the advance is not the most probable, but they do agree that today it is ms search that a month ago, when the leaders of the PP and Ciudadanos en Andaluca, Moreno Bonilla and Juan Marn, ran to solemnly avert any temptation to break the government pact and consequently accelerate the electoral times.

That the polls blow in favor of the PP is a factor that must be taken into account, but it is not the only one that weighs because no poll gives it a majority that frees it to seek a partner and Vox, if necessary, would not be such a partner. comfortable as Citizens, in risk certain to disappear if the polls were opened at this time.

But, on the other side is the temptation of being carried away by the wave that has triggered the electoral expectations of Isabel Daz Ayuso or that an even deeper crisis of Ciudadanos – if it disappeared from the Madrid Assembly – would drag the orange party throughout the country, including Andalusia, to its dissolution or fracture .

This is precisely the possibility that Moreno Bonilla mentioned in the Onda Cero interview in which he first opened the door to advancement. The gap that he hinted, linked him directly to the immediate future of his partner in government.

In the Andalusian PP they confirm it. In fact, the sources consulted in the leadership of the party emphasize that an advance of the elections is not being considered. Along these lines, they insist that we do not want there to be elections, we want to hold on. But, next line, they recognize that it is not an option that can be ruled out one hundred percent.

The risk that, after the Madrid elections, the scenario will be one of unattainable political instability It is there and, in that case, ruling could become unfeasible. It is the major cause to which Moreno himself alluded this Friday.

Without ceasing to admit it, in the Andalusian PP they swear and perjure that it is not their wish and that it would be a mistake to summon the Andalusians to the polls in advance, who will not understand it when there are still two years of legislature ahead.

Right now, these sources point out, there is neither speech nor justification for this, and the situation is not the most suitable either. No, at least the economic one, since a recovery, even if it were incipient, would be more beneficial for the ruling party.

In this sense, the Andalusian president’s tour of the Andalusian interior does not have an electoral reading. In the PP there are no primaries in sight, as in the Andalusian PSOE with a Susana Daz in campaign mode. Quite simply, popular sources say, an attempt is being made to retake the pending agenda which had to be postponed due to the pandemic.

Before the health crisis, the idea in Moreno’s team was to go around Andaluca two or three times and what it is about now is to make up for lost time.

In Ciudadanos, for its part, the mere mention of an electoral advance provokes chills. The crisis in which the party is plunged, especially after the Murcian fiasco and the PP takeover at the national level, has collapsed their expectations and those of Juan Marn are clinging to the two years remaining in the legislature with the hope of a comeback.

The Cs sources consulted are those that most forcefully reject the possibility of an advancement of the elections and defend, tooth and nail, the achievements of the coalition government with the PP.

The PSOE is immersed in its own internal battle facing the primaries that must be held at the end of the year and an advance will force the process to be accelerated, something that in the ranks of Susana Daz will not be seen with bad eyes.

Socialists do not completely rule out advancement. They haven’t done it before and they don’t do it now.

In Izquierda Unida, on their side, although they do not completely rule out early elections as a secondary effect of 4M, they do see it improbable.

They do not bet on the party led by Toni Valero for an imminent call, although, yes, they are convinced that the elections are not going to be held when they play, that is, at the end of next year.

However, in IU the attention has been drawn to the collectillas that Moreno Bonilla is using lately when answering this question and with which he did not finish his sentences before.

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