The debate between candidates to preside over the Community of Madrid held this Wednesday already has its echo in the polls: Isabel Diaz Ayuso keep going up, Pablo Iglesias continues with its downward trend and is already only one seat above Citizens. This follows from the last tracking weekly prepared by SocioMétrica for EL ESPAÑOL, the first to include the debate effect.

The leader of United we can, who sought the confrontation with the president during the evening, would achieve today a 6,8% of the votes, or what is the same, 8 seats. The figure is well below what the first polls predicted when he ran for president (then he had 15 seats).

In this way, Iglesias would only get one more seat than Citizens (7), which would still remain above the 5% threshold that defines whether or not a party has representation in the Assembly. Right on the edge.


The great winner of the debate according to the readers of EL ESPAÑOL, Ayuso, continues in crescendo and it already achieves 56 seats, its highest level since weekly polls are published.

Thus, Ayuso could revalidate the presidency comfortably, either alone with Vox (together they add 71 seats) or in a tripartite with Cs (78). On the other hand, the left (PSOE, Más Madrid and Podemos) would only manage to obtain 58 deputies. A very different scenario from the one posed by the CIS of Tezanos, which projects a victory for the left-wing bloc.

Vote transfer

For yet another week, the SocioMétrica survey shows the transfer of vote between the different parties. And the most striking is still the exodus that occurs from Ciudadanos to the PP: a 50,8% of those who voted for the Liberal Party in 2019 would emigrate today to the party led by Ayuso. A figure even higher than the 49.7% of last week.

However, the candidacy of Edmundo bal and their performance in the debate would be doing well to the orange formation, which retains 19.3% of its voters from the autonomic pasts. A poor figure, but one that is higher than the 15.6% of just 22 days ago. Thus, Bal’s campaign would be managing to contain the hemorrhage caused by the motion of censure in Murcia.

Ayuso would add, in addition to half of the voters of Cs, to 23.2% of the electorate of Vox, to 6.1% of the socialist and – striking – to 5.2% of that of Más Madrid.

There would also be outstanding movements within the left, with important vote transfers between the PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos. The 26,2% of those who voted for the purple formation would opt today for Monica Garcia. 10.7% of the electorate of Más Madrid would carry out the reverse transit.

The party led by Pablo Iglesias it would retain 57.1% of its voters from two years ago, being the second that loses the most, after Ciudadanos. This bleeding would have García as the main beneficiary and, to a very lesser extent, Gabilondo (3.3%). 11.2% of the once purple would abstain.

In addition, the loyalty of the electorate of the right is once again evident. And is that 85% of those who voted for the Popular Party in 2019 will repeat their ballot, a figure that is lowered to 73.5% in the case of Vox.

On the left, the party with the most loyal electorate is the PSOE (66%), closely followed by Más Madrid (64.3%) and Podemos (57.1%)

Ayuso approves

Isabel Diaz Ayuso She is the only candidate who approves of the six who are running to preside over the Community of Madrid. The popular leader obtains an average rating of 5,3, four enzymes above his immediate pursuer.

Regarding the assessment of leaders that EL ESPAÑOL has been publishing, it is striking how Monica Garcia (More Madrid) continues to reap an upward valuation and is already close to approved (4,9). A month ago, the people of Madrid gave it a 3.9. Thus, it improves in consideration of Angel Gabilondo (4,1).

They complete the ranking Edmundo bal (Cs) and Rocío Monastery (Vox), with a 3.7. In the last place, Pablo Iglesias (United We Can), which only obtained a 1.9.

Datasheet

Tracking of 500 weekly surveys with the last 1,500 calculation base, CAWI type, proportional to the CAM municipal censuses, managed through Gandia Integra (c). The sample is weighted by sex, age, employment status and educational level, and reweighting by vote recall in the regional elections in April19, and general elections in November19. As it is non-probabilistic sampling, there is no sampling error, but rather convergence of the weighting by interaction, which is 98% (Error = 2%) in the Barbwin algorithm. Sociométrica is a partner of Insights + Analytics Spain, a business branch, a Data Science association that integrates Aneimo and Aedemo.

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